Posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:01 AM PDT by Torie
GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
I think you put it in the right spot.
It is a push poll because of all of those policy questions that were asked before asking for preferences in the Taylor race. That is naughty.
The last election went 58-37 for Cunningham over Francine Busby (same liberal Dem running this time). However, Bush beat Kerry by a narrower 55-44 tally in this district, which can be taken as a pretty good metric of party sentiment in times of high turnout. This means it's actually pretty competitive as congressional districts go.
A true Republican would NEVER vote for a DemocRAT.
No, but remember, most people aren't political junkies like us. Most people marginally give a damn. In a special election aligned with a primary, who turns out decides the election. It's a measure not of the party balance of the people in your district (like Bush v Kerry, in '04, was) but of the balance of fired-up, committed people, and of your ability to marshal volunteers and a GOTV effort.
In this district there's been an air game too (radio and TV ads) but that's a huge money pit. The problem is that fundraising is down because the base is just beaten up, insulted, and not interested, and volunteerism is low for the same reason.
At the same time, the Dems are feeling like winners. They have a lot of motivation, they're getting the amnesty bill that will let them change this district and other California Republican districts forever within a few short years, one of the biggest victories in the history of politics perhaps, and they're getting it as a gift from George Bush, a guy most of them hate a lot more than Satan.
And the volunteers who stay home are screwing themselves. However, pissing on your base, a Bush family tradition, tends to piss off your base, and then they act as they want to, even if it's against self-interest.
When the people get convinced that "they're all crooks" -- a belief that to some extent is probably always true -- the party that suffers is the incumbent party.
QED.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
I believe the American people should find their own candidates and elect them. These crooks are never going to change. After we elect our own; we can set about charging and convicting these crooks.
I have no like for politicians that run as Republicans and then support a Democrat platform.
I also have no tolerance for corruption or those who associate with crooks.
If that makes me a "right winger" in your eyes, that's fine. I think it just makes me a good Republican.
Well .. the real point is .. the CA GOP chose a RINO to run for the position - instead of choosing from several good and well-known strong conservatives.
If the GOP loses the 50th seat - it has done it to itself.
That's not really uncommon, though, and they say nothing about the positions of Shuler and Taylor nor do they provide any kind of description of them aside from their party ID.
How did you conclude this? If you were referring to my post, I did not say how many said they would vote for him vs. those who shook their head in disgust.
That is not the primary problem here.
What is, in your opinion?
Ya, but when you ask if you are unhappy about this and that, and how happy you are with the Pubbies in Congress, it has an impact.
From what I hear Schuler is running his campaign like he did his NFL career, but I guess we'll find out what happens.
One thing to bear in mind, is that 44% of voters in this district are registered Republicans, and 56% are not. It is all those declined to states, 21% of the voters (one of the highest in California), that are the "problem" Calcowgirl. I suspect that Busby is getting most of them.
So, our message to Charles Taylor: Knock it off. You have the Congressional Manual -- never vote against patriotic issues in an election year. Also, if you have to lie, at least make it plausible -- not too many people are going to buy "I meant to vote against it."C'mon, you're running against Heath Shuler -- don't make it so hard on yourself.
"a loss of 40 seats"
Where on earth are you getting those stats .. please supply your source.
I suspect your source is wishful thinking.
At this stage, Shuler probably has higher name recognition than Taylor in the district, too.
However, the paper in Asheville does want to change that, and not in any way that will benefit Taylor.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
Typical RNC - throw in the towel rather than put up a fight. They're the France of politics.
I'm holding out for the June 6 elections before I might make any moves that drastic. I think the CA-50 special will go a long way toward clearing up where things currently stand.
Well we both think the battle for House control now has a Dem lean, yet your call of the individual races suggests maybe a 15 seat pick up or so. That is about 5-8 seats short.
If the election were 'nationalized' as it would be if the election were held today, then my view is that the Democrats would cut deep into the seats now rated Lean GOP, possibly even picking them all up in a worse-case GOP scenario. However, if those districts are isolated into their internal dynamics, and/or if the macro-political landscape swings back toward the GOP, those districts would lean anywhere from mildly to strongly GOP. That's how I look at it.
Stated differently, in a neutral environment, I think the Dems would pick up the Lean D seats and win half the Toss Ups, for a net gain of 8-10 seats. With a tide at their back, I think the rest of the Toss Ups swiftly fall in their favor and they start picking up the Lean Rs.
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