HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RodFromGa | May 28, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RINOS, and LIBERALS, and BEARS, OH MY!
by RobFromGa

If you look at each state and how it voted in the 2004 election cycle, you can assign a Red, Purple, or Blue category to it. I used anything greater than 52% Bush as Red, 48-52% Bush

was Purple, and anything under 48% as a Blue State.

Then in looking at 2005 and Lifetime ACU ratings (how conservative their voting patterns have been), I assigned the Senators in order from most conservative to least conservative, and

going off of current knowledge of recent voting patterns, I then identified the RINOs:

Liberal RINOs (least conservative first): Chafee, Snowe, Collins
Moderate RINOs (least conservative first): DeWine,Smith(OR),Specter,Coleman,Voinovich,Gregg,McCain*,Graham*,Hagel*

Note: It is very hard to call McCain, Graham and Hagel RINOs from looking at their long-term voting patterns, but for the purposes of this analysis I call them RINOs mainly because that

are bucking the GOP Senate leacership and acting like they are in charge instead of Frist. It is likely that 2008 Presidential politics are playing a big role in their behaviour.

Looking at the state breakdowns:

RED (Conservative) State Opportunities:

There are 25 Red States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

15 Red States with 2 Conservative Senators: AL,AK,GA,ID,KS,KY,MS,MO,NC,OK,TN,TX,UT,VA,WY
2 Red States with a Conservative and a RINO: AZ, SC
4 Red States that are splitting their vote with one Conservative and one Liberal: IN,LA,MT,SD
1 Red State with a RINO and a Liberal: NE
Remarkably, there are 3 Red states with 2 Liberal Senators: AR,ND,WV

Red State Analysis:
There is a potential for +8 Conservative Senators in just those last 4 states (AR,ND,WV,and NE) and if we got two of four "split" states to throw out their liberal and elect two

Conservatives, we are at +10.

Purple (Moderate) State Opportunities:

There are 12 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

0 Purple States with two Conservative Senators
2 Purple States with a Conservative and a RINO: PA,NH
5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM
1 Purple State with 2 RINOs: OH
2 Purple States with a Liberal and a RINO: MN,OR
2 Purple States with two Liberals: MI, WI

Purple State Analysis:
Our best chances to improve in the Purple states is to get rid of the Liberals. There are potentially 11 Liberals who could get run out of office in these states, but in order for a

Conservative to win, we need great candidates. In some cases we will probably have to settle for a Moderate in some of these Purple states. It is also likely that these states will be

trending as either more Blue or Red over time.

Blue (Liberal) State Opportunities:

There are 13 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

1 Blue State with 2 RINOs: ME
1 Blue State with a Liberal and a RINO: RI
11 Blue States with 2 Liberal Senators: CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NY,VT,WA

Blue State Analysis: Our three most liberal RINOs are all from these blue states, and the chances of electing a true Conservative are slim to none at present. If we want more RINOs, then we could potentially

swap RINOs for liberals in some races. This will tend to be the celebrity or otherwise well-known, well-funded candidate (ala Arnold) or if there is some other local issue (like scandal).

We should not spend too much time and effort on the Blue States, when there is so much potential to improve still in the Red and Purple States.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: If we get 2 Conservatives from each Red State, and at least one Conservative from each Purple state, we are at 62 true Conservative Senators, enough to do what needs to be done to enact Conservative legislation.

HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?

In the 2006 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Byrd(WV), Conrad(ND), Nelson(NE)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Stabenow(MI), Bingaman(NM), Kohl(WI), Open(MN), Nelson(FL)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: none
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: DeWine(OH)

HOLD SITUTATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Ensign(NV), Santorum(PA)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Chafee(RI), Snowe (MI)

In the 2008 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)

HOLD OR ABANDON?:
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Collins(ME)

In the 2010 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Lincoln(AR), Dorgan(ND), Bayh(IN)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Wyden(OR), Reid(NV), Feingold(WI), Salazar(CO)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: McCain*(AZ)
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Specter(PA), Voinovich*(OH), Gregg(NH)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Grassley(IA), Martinez(FL)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: none

We need strong candidates and a good grass-roots effort in each of these races where we have an opportunity for a TAKEOVER or an upgrade. Soliciting Freeper comments as to who is

respected enough in each of these states to make this happen.

What conservative candidates have experience in statewide elections in these states, and what will it take to get them to run?

It is too late to do much yet in 2006 but there are HUGE opportunities in 2008 and 2010 that we need to be planning for now...

Soliciting Freeper input.

RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

You might as well put Warner in the RINO category too.

Another single issue voter.

[RobFromGa]

I have to offer this correction to FL: Martinez is a RINO. He is no conservative.

Martinez has a 100 ACU rating for 2005, you are letting a single vote cloud your judgement.

[RobFromGa]

the Republicans might just lose the Senate but retain control of the House!

I don't think there is a chance that the GOP will lose the Senate, here is my analysis:

RobFromGa's SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- MAY 2006

[RobFromGa]

with Lt. Gov. Steele becoming Sen. Steele.

I am continuing to donate to Steele, and Kennedy(MN) and Santorum(PA), and McGavick(WA) for their Senate runs. Since the House is too difficult to track, I am making my donations for House races through Club For Growth.

[RobFromGa]

They are not conservative Democrats winning in the red states, they may talk like that at home but they vote like liberals.

We need to use tactics from the Chambliss-Cleland race in GA and the Thune-Daschle race in order to "nationalize" these elections and make the people of these small red states consider the big picture when voting.

[RobFromGa]

thanks.

[RobFromGa]

thanks for stopping by...

[yuleeyahoo]

Joe Browner,

He is the worst kind of politician. He is one who lied to us. He said all the right things about immigration when he was running for office. Then the only running he has done since is from his campaign promises and to the left.

You are not alone, he fooled me too. I worked this campaign too.

Mrs. Yuleeyahoo

[yuleeyahoo]

Hardastardboard,

EXACTLY!!! Or should I say "Si Amigo"

Mrs. Yuleeyahoo

[RobFromGa]

I have not closely followed any single Senator but my own vote-by-vote. Has Martinez voted like a liberal on other issues besides the immigration issue?

[heights]

Wall Of Shame

[Joe Brower]

> Joe Browner

Argh! It's Brower. No "n".

But it's good to meet a kindred soul. $:-) One of the biggest things I did for Mel's campaign was run the protest rally outside the TV studio in Tampa, FL, when he debated Betty Castor (while his hired staff quickly and quietly vanished).

Click here for the FR thread on that.

[Joe Brower]

> Joe Browner

Argh! It's Brower. No "n".

But it's good to meet a kindred soul. $:-) One of the biggest things I did for Mel's campaign was run the protest rally outside the TV studio in Tampa, FL, when he debated Betty Castor (while his hired staff quickly and quietly vanished).

Click here for the FR thread on that.

[RobFromGa]

If you single issue "Conservatives" get your way, the damage that will be done by the future liberal Presidents, as well as filibuster-proof liberal Congresses that you cause is likely to be irrevocable. The judges could be enough to make it impossible to right the ship. I hope you recognize that.

[RobFromGa]

you might find this thread of interest

[heights]

Single issue? If we lose this battle we lose our Country!

[RobFromGa]

1. I think the House has our back on the immigration bill.
2. I don't think even the Senate immigration bill, if passed, has the potential to do near the damage that electing a liberal President and a liberal Congress to go along with it just because some people want to throw out a number of solid conservatives because they disagree on one vote.

Many of you people, even when the House doesn't let the Senate bill become law, still want to give the country over to the liberals. So, we lose either way with your thinking.

In fact with your thinking, what could the conservatives in the Senate possibly do at this point to keep you from electing liberals in their place?

[Regulator]

Bill Frist is NOT a conservative and just spearheaded legalizing the tidal-wave of illegals from south of our border

Mr Frist is not only not a conservative, but he is no longer the 'majority' leader, unless you count leading his bastard coalition of pretty much every Democrat and those weaklings who voted with them.

When the Republican majority leader goes against a majority of his own party on this incredible, radical bill which promises to totally remake the United States should it ever have the misfortune to become law, then he is no longer the leader, but a renegade gone against his own.

Mr. Frist is FINISHED as the majority leader. Look forward to a showdown soon, as the maneuvering to get rid of him gets under way.

[heights]

I think keeping the House is all important.The Senate has shown its true colors.Our goal should be too retain the house and in the coming years change the face of the Senate.

[RobFromGa]

in the coming years change the face of the Senate.

I agree, and with 25 Red (conservative states) and 12 Purple (moderate) states, we should be able to reach 60+ conservatives with the right candidates. The key to 8 conservative seats can be found in four states: AR, ND, WV,and NE.