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To: cogitator

Cause and effect... you observe a data point and then decide it was the cause.. how do you know that 180-280 window was not an effect of less or more solar energy reaching the surface due to lesser solar activity? Or some other action?

Glacial/interglacial can be blamed just as much on the desalinization of the north atlantic and the slowing of the interoceanic flows than it can on any change in atmospheric gas make up.

I personally fail to see any cause-effect correlation. If anything it seems your observation that 180-280 constant still had wild climate changes from glacial to non glacial... so how can one conclude that any amount out of that range has any direct or indirect effect on global temps?

1 Reason for global temp changes... more or less energy from the sun reaching the earth, pure and simple.


102 posted on 05/25/2006 11:17:42 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay
Cause and effect... you observe a data point and then decide it was the cause.. how do you know that 180-280 window was not an effect of less or more solar energy reaching the surface due to lesser solar activity? Or some other action?

For your information, the reason for the 180-280 ppm window is a subject of intense research interest, because models can only reproduce about 2/3 of the variability range. AND... these models are dependent on variability of solar insolation due to Milankovitch forcing. Milankovitch forcing is probably what drives glacial-interglacial variability. CO2 responds to and amplifies the effect: warmer periods mean more CO2, colder periods mean less CO2. I just posted this, but here it is again:

What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?

Glacial/interglacial can be blamed just as much on the desalinization of the north atlantic and the slowing of the interoceanic flows than it can on any change in atmospheric gas make up.

See above. Glacial/interglacial cycles are driven by Milankovitch forcing, with atmospheric CO2 an amplifying factor.

If anything it seems your observation that 180-280 constant still had wild climate changes from glacial to non glacial... so how can one conclude that any amount out of that range has any direct or indirect effect on global temps?

280 ppm was the maximum in the natural variability observed during warm interglacials. We're now at 350 ppm and rising during a warm interglacial. There's a problem in predicting what that will do because there's no precedent for it in the past 640,000 years! Radiative forcing basics indicate that it should have a warming effect, perhaps augmented by positive feedback and perhaps reduced by negative feedbacks. This is still an area where the scientists and modelers are working hard.

Reason for global temp changes... more or less energy from the sun reaching the earth, pure and simple.

This statement is timescale dependent.

115 posted on 05/25/2006 11:38:04 AM PDT by cogitator
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