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The Flipping Point (global warming conversion of skeptic Michael Shermer)
Scientific American ^ | June 2006 | Michael Shermer

Posted on 05/25/2006 9:02:16 AM PDT by cogitator

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To: elvisabel78
How can you mention ice ages without mentioning this tilt, also called "Milankovitch cycles".

Thanks, another good point.

There are *so* many other variables that their models don't take into account, it's rather laughable to consider their models anywhere near complete.

301 posted on 05/26/2006 3:23:40 PM PDT by Dominic Harr (Conservative = Careful, as in 'Conservative with money')
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To: Doctor Stochastic
No. It's been "warming" since the early 50s according my experience and "warming" since the 1870s according to my reading.

Heck, it's been warming since the end of the last ice age.

And, it's all our fault!

302 posted on 05/26/2006 3:24:39 PM PDT by Dominic Harr (Conservative = Careful, as in 'Conservative with money')
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To: Doctor Stochastic

Where I live used to be orange groves (in the 19th century). People, including myself, keep citrus trees for a few years at a time, but we have a killer freeze about every ten years. I've been here 60 years, and the coldest days have been since 1989. In 1989 we had five inches of snow.

I realize this doesn't measure climate change, but I have my doubts about actual changes in agricultural zones.


303 posted on 05/26/2006 3:30:31 PM PDT by js1138 (Well I say there are some things we don't want to know! Important things!")
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To: Dominic Harr
Those charts I'm posting are a big slam-dunk against your position. They *are* convincing to most folks. They show a large history of temp fluctuation that can not be related to Co2.

The reason you don't get it is that the majority of climate fluctuations throughout paleohistory are linked to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. That's why I said you were wrong. Yes, there are certainly other influences on global climate, and not all climate variability is caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. But one of the primary factors is and was CO2 in the atmosphere. No matter how hard you want to believe it's not, the scientific understanding is well-established.

And the reason it's important now is because CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are rapidly increasing.

Have a nice holiday.

304 posted on 05/26/2006 3:40:32 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: Dominic Harr

Nice chart in #278. I'll take todays garden over the icebox 18,000 years ago any ole day.


305 posted on 05/26/2006 3:41:24 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jonrick46
The obsession scientist have with CO2 is a huge misdirection of research effort (and money).

There's a reason that Gore called his movie "An Inconvenient Truth". For a certain subset of people it could also have been titled "Facts That I'm Forced to Ignore".

I invite you to learn a lot more. But you don't have to, of course.

306 posted on 05/26/2006 3:42:48 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator

Climate is a major function of Earths rotation and orbit along with the yellow orb. CO2 contributes as a greenhouse effect but nowhere comparable to the two major functions. Man's contribution to the Greenhouse effect is rounding error. As sure as the sun comes up tomorrow the next little ice age will show up right on time. Now that will be a problem to contend with as growing seasons shorten, glaciers reclaim fertile land and lots of people compete for limited resources.


307 posted on 05/26/2006 3:48:24 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07
the Milankovitch effect tackles the theory of some global warming doubters, who claim that "co2 was higher at some point in the past, yet we had glacial ages".
They fail to admit that the axis of the earth is an obvious cause of ice ages, which caused solar radiation to increase or decrease. This tilt, however, cannot be related to the sudden increase temperature in the 20th century, since the tilt of the earth has remained unchanged for the past thousands of years.
The tilts that cause glacial ages occured in immensly long periods of time. so the warming cannot be attributed to the Milankovitch effect, of course, or to solar output. We are left with Greenhouse emmissions.
308 posted on 05/26/2006 4:15:02 PM PDT by elvisabel78
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To: cogitator

Any scientific theory/movement that has Al Gore as one of its leading spokesman is has a major credibility issue before the first data set can be examined. More significantly, any scientific theory whose advocates predicate their presentations with claims that the expert consensus in favor of their position is so great that there no longer is any need for debate/examination/justification of its premises, is further implicating its credibility and acquiring classic hallmarks of a con game, which of course is all that GLOBAL WARMING really is.

The central issue in Al Gore's life (Son of rich and powerful U.S Senator, raised in hotel by male "nanny") has been his quest for the accoutrements of accomplishment, without demonstration of any real effort or talent on his part. e.g. Serving in Vietnam via a six week stint as a "journalist"; e.g., going to HARVARD, while suppressing forever his record there of stagering acedemic failure, especially as to his one science course for liberal arts majors, e.g claiming to have invented the internet. Adopting and promoting the psuedo scientific pretensions of the "environmentalists" is only one more in a long chain of manifestations of Gore's innate need to look/"feel" important with no further effort than memorizing the uncross-examined, unrebutted, arguments of global warming theology.

Also, you still havent told us what the temperature in downtown Milwaukee will be on noon a week from next Tuesday.


309 posted on 05/26/2006 4:16:54 PM PDT by Gail Wynand (Why not "virtual citizenship"?)
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To: elvisabel78

No we aren't. We are left with the planets energy source as well. What percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is contributed by humans burning petrochemicals?


310 posted on 05/26/2006 4:31:24 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: sergeantdave

LOL!! FWIW, I think you and I may be on the same page, on this one: predominant causes of warming aren't anthropogenic. IF we are, in fact contributors, we are only negligibly so, and any effort on our part to stop the overall warming trend will be economically exhausting and, in the final analysis, entirely futile; although it may make some politicians, lobbyists and envirotech firms wealthy over the next 100 years. Ultimately, that last point is why this will continue to be pushed as a top drawer issue.


311 posted on 05/26/2006 4:35:38 PM PDT by HKMk23 (We keep you alive to serve this ship. Row well, and live.)
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To: elvisabel78
Nothing is constant, well except maybe for Congressional republicans being sure to step in crap without even trying.


312 posted on 05/26/2006 4:40:03 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: wizardoz
Quickly, let's destroy the economy so that over the next 95 years, the coastline doesn't change!! That way, instead of moving half a billion people, we can just starve them to death!

Right! In fact we should abandon technology almost entirely. After all, when we have to retreat from the coast, mud huts are soooo much easier to reconstruct than frame houses!

313 posted on 05/26/2006 4:58:36 PM PDT by Stultis (I don't worry about the war turning into "Vietnam" in Iraq; I worry about it doing so in Congress.)
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To: Doctor Stochastic

25 years ago, climatologists were warning of the coming Ice Age. Well, maybe 30, but close enough.

http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm


314 posted on 05/26/2006 5:14:15 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: elvisabel78
”They(people like me) fail to admit that the axis of the earth is an obvious cause of ice ages”

Obviously, I haven’t got that memo yet. /s


”The tilts that cause glacial ages occured in immensly long periods of time. so the warming cannot be attributed to the Milankovitch effect, of course, or to solar output. We are left with Greenhouse emmissions.”

You are omitting hundreds if not thousands of other possibilities in your ‘process of elimination.’


”Google it”

We have an unofficial ban of Google at Freerepublic.

315 posted on 05/26/2006 6:05:09 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric cartman voice* “I love you guys”)
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To: jwalsh07
Of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enter earth's atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons are from human activity. Which is around 3%

What the global alarmist fail to point out there are other factors involved by the earth where it could produce a great deal more one year vs the next.

316 posted on 05/26/2006 6:18:51 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric cartman voice* “I love you guys”)
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To: Steve Van Doorn

Yeah, I know. But human contribution to the greenhouse effect is about 1/10 of 3%, rounding error. If we stopped burning fuel tomorrow, there would be no effect on the climate cycle.


317 posted on 05/26/2006 6:30:44 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: cogitator
Ice core samples are not global, they are local. And the climatic and atmospheric characteristics of polar regions are very different from temperate and equatorial regions. It's like saying what you find in the air in your freezer you'll also find in your basement.

We simply do not have enough evidence to state demonstrably the overall trend of many thousands of years.

We've been mapping global temperatures for a hundred years. To try to trace and predict global catastrophe based on that is like trying to predict the past ten years of someone's driving only knowing that they took a left turn out of their driveway, and ten trying to predict the next year of their driving.

The entire approach to this article ("Once I believed the other way, now I've changed") is a rhetorical device designed to appeal to a specific audience. Some members of that audience appear to be right here on FR responding to your post. If he considers Al Gore an expert, I highly doubt he was ever a serious skeptic. The bottom line is that if there is global warming, which there may very well be (we're talking fractions) proving that it is caused by man's activities is highly subjective. To alter the course of the post-industrial age based upon debatable evidence and the hysterics it is causing is absurd. To satisfy the Algores of this country, we'd have to adopt a Kyoto protocol on steroids. That would be national suicide for us and any nation that bought into it.

Oh, and for those of you out there who want to read the thoughts of someone who was legitimately on the Eco side of global warming and who made a genuine shifter after honestly studying "the data," read Bjorn Lomberg's "The Skeptical Environmentalist."

If Algore believes it, I highly doubt it.
318 posted on 05/26/2006 6:37:43 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Liberals are blind. They are the dupes of Leftists who know exactly what they're doing.)
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To: elvisabel78
the tilt of the earth has remained unchanged for the past thousands of years

Yet climate has varied greatly over those thousands of years. Take a look at the temperature proxies in these data sets: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/contributions_by_author/ like this one: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/contributions_by_author/bard2002/bard2002.txt This is a simple one, but don't let me bias your research by cherry picking. The theme in all the data is that temperature variations are normal although a lot of the proxy measurements are localized and will therefore show more variation than a world-wide average. But it is difficult to get an worldwide average using proxies without averaging out apples with oranges and appending biased measurements to produce hockey sticks.

319 posted on 05/26/2006 6:46:59 PM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
See my previous post, you are correct that temperature proxies are never global. However like samples (e.g. tree cores from across the N. Hemisphere) can be pretty valuable for getting somewhat of an average. Also there tends to be a certain amount of natural smoothing in some types of proxies (e.g. sediment).

("Once I believed the other way, now I've changed") is a rhetorical device designed to appeal to a specific audience. Some members of that audience appear to be right here on FR responding to your post

That's the whole idea. The true-believers are not content to post articles with facts, they would rather suck in gullible folks with rhetoric and argue talking points with them then face the scientific challenges.

320 posted on 05/26/2006 6:55:34 PM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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