Bird Flu Returns To Plague The FTSE

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 5-25-2006 | Tom Stevenson - David Litterick

[blam]

Bird flu returns to plague the FTSE

By Tom Stevenson and David Litterick (Filed: 25/05/2006)

Markets suffered another volatile day as nervous investors added bird flu to their growing list of worries, star fund manager Anthony Bolton warned the slide in world markets "could last months", and a high-profile flotation in New York dived in first-day dealings.

WHO reported that bird flu could be passed between humans

In London, the FTSE 100 closed 91.6 points lower at 5587.1, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 index slumped 180.3 points to 9054.0. Metal prices also headed sharply lower after Tuesday's record gains were reversed. Copper dropped $645, or 7.6pc, to $7,815 a tonne in afternoon trading.

Nerves were frayed by a report from the World Health Organisation which said human-to-human transmission of avian flu was a possible cause of six deaths in a single Indonesian family.

Currencies in Asia, where most bird flu cases have occurred, fell on fears that a global pandemic, which experts believe could kill millions and devastate economies, had moved closer.

The dollar, a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty, rose as unexpectedly strong sales of new homes in America bolstered the view that US interest rates will rise for a 17th consecutive time in June.

The dollar was up by 1.5 cents to $1.8672 against the pound despite a 4.8pc drop in US durable goods orders in April. The strength of the dollar hit gold, which closed $21.95 lower at $644.80.

A spokesman for the WHO said: "This is the most significant development so far in terms of public health. We have not had in the past what we have here, which is no explanation as to how these people became infected."

David Bloom, a currency strategist at HSBC, said: "This is the last thing we needed. Only a few weeks ago everyone thought everything was fine. Now they're not so sure. The normal rules have broken down."

Anthony Bolton, manager of Fidelity's Special Situations Fund, warned in a speech that investors had been piling too much money into riskier assets. He also expressed concern about the likely impact of an avian flu pandemic.

"It is a risk," he said. "It must be serious for governments to spend the amount of time and money that they have."

In New York, internet phone company Vonage became the biggest technology float for more than two years but jittery markets and scepticism over the future of the company pushed the shares down by up to 14pc on their debut.

Vonage raised $531m (£284m) after selling 32.1m shares at the mid-range price of $17 a share. But by midday the stock had fallen as low as $14.50 as traders doubted that it would ever make money.

Vonage's management has acknowledged it may never be profitable and investors noted that it faces competition in the "voice over internet protocol" market from Google and eBay's Skype, both of which have far deeper pockets.

[blam]

Ping.

[blam]

This is the situation that has brought on the current round of worry:

Bird flu family tests after seven die

(Filed: 25/05/2006)

Scientists are investigating a suspected case of human-to-human transfer of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu after a family of eight was struck down by the virus.

Seven of the family in the village of Kubu Sembilang in north Sumatra have died in the past month but no infected birds have been found.

Experts said there had been similar suspicions before but they could not rule out that the virus may have mutated, allowing it to spread from human to human.

A World Health Organisation spokesman, said: "We have never had a cluster as large as this. We have not had what we have here - no explanation as to how these people became infected. We can't find sick animals in this community and that worries us."

[blam]

"US computer models show 20-40 million dead here. We must quarantine."

Many are saying that quarantines eventually fail.

BTW, welcome to Free Republic.

[Smokin' Joe]

Thanks, blam. Pinging the list...

[steve86]

Ping City today.

[fatima]

Humm and the leader of WHO just died suddenly.

[TalBlack]

I thought of bird flu today. Went to the post office and there was a pigeon dead on the grass. Looked like it just keeled over dead. I thought: "Ya know if this were a Steven King novel..." as I gave it a wide pass. I thought of how dismissive i had been about bird flu as a threat on FR.

Were doomed.

[AntiGuv]

I suspect you've misread or misheard something. 20-40 million dead is a likely figure for deaths worldwide if there's a flu pandemic, and it doesn't really have anything much to do with models. That's just the estimated range of dead from the 1918 Spanish Influenza.

In any case, 20-40 million deaths in just the U.S. is a borderline absurd figure. That would be comparable to the fatality rate of the Black Death (bubonic plague) or of the Antonine Plague (smallpox) and that would be totally unprecedented for influenza.