Western PA is a strange place. The people there are more conservative than, say, the midwest, but because daddy (or, more often now, granddaddy) worked for the union, they can't manage to pull the R lever. The D's are for the working man 'n'at.
His district is emblematic of that. If you abuse Murtha too much, they will tune out. They'll just figure the nice old man is being beaten up by meanie Republicans and they'll vote for him again. His district is also an older-skewing district that remembers the steel days fondly and are disconnected from the fact that their kids don't work in the steel mills anymore because people like Murtha made it too expensive to have steel mills in PA.
You must understand that you could show them videotape of Murtha saying something and they will believe he never said it if Murtha denies it afterwards.
I am a bit pessimistic about Irey's chances. It's an uphill battle, but she's really fighting. I think she can do it, but it will take a light touch and she has to play up every tick in the polls she makes. She has to make herself look inevitable and be a "sweet young lady".
So I've heard before. Yet nobody seems to be able to reconcile that claim with Bush's 49% in 2004.
All she has to do is be herself and support the grandsons, grandaughters, nephews, nieces, son & daughters that Murtha is trashing and endangering by his comments.
Zel Miller Dems (like some of my mother's kin in Fayette county) are not going to take kindly to someone trashing their loved ones. These aren't Philly-style plantation Dems, and they will kick his senile old butt to the curb.
Uphill? Yes. Doable? Absolutely.