I don't think Dubya would survive the political aftermath of nuking another country. He'd be run out of office. A president can't do whatever he wants. Without the support of most Americans, he is weak.
I think Dubya would do what he felt was right, political career be damned. And I would say that about very few politicians.
The President has only two years remaining in office. Politically speaking, he is invunerable. Now, with someone like "the other Clinton" in office, Iran should wait for a more opportune time. You definitely do not want this President PO'ed.