SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[Dimez Apart]

Modest in the House,
227 Republicans 208 Democrats Most likely
Worst Case: 223 Repubs, 212 Dems
Best Possible: 235 Repubs, Dems 200
Still alot of time in 2006

Senate slight losses
53 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 1 Socialist (sick)
Worst Case: 52 Repubs, 47 Democrats + Socialist
Best: 56 Repubs, 43 Dems + Socialist

Don't count Steele out. Common wisdom says he won't get it, but if the trend thats picked up since 2000 of Republicans picking up a few % points of minority voters keeps up, this election won't even be close to a 'dems' '94.

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE ON LAFFEY/CHAFEE PRIMARY--

Press Statement on Rhode Island Poll
THE LAFFEY SURGE: POLL RESULTS SHOW PRO-GROWTH CHALLENGER WOULD DEFEAT ECONOMIC LIBERAL CHAFEE IF RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY WERE HELD TODAY

Washington, D.C. - The Club for Growth, the nation's leading free-market advocacy organization with over 35,000 members, today released a poll showing that Steve Laffey, Rhode Island GOP Senatorial candidate and Mayor of Cranston, has drawn into a statistical dead heat with incumbent Senator Lincoln Chafee in their Republican primary race. According to the polling firm, if the election were held today, it is likely the undecided respondents would break toward Laffey and propel him to victory. Club for Growth President Pat Toomey issued the following statement:

"This polling data shows that Rhode Island Republicans are rallying behind Mayor Steve Laffey and his prosperity agenda," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "Mayor Laffey has pulled even, or slightly ahead of, Senator Chafee despite the barrage of negative attack ads run against Mayor Laffey by Senator Chafee's Senate buddies and the recent huge run of pro-Chafee ads run by the incumbent."

"Senator Chafee's dramatic fall in this race, despite all the ads run for him, explains why he is now resorting to his own harsh, misleading attacks on Mayor Laffey," Toomey continued. "The tremendous sums of money Lincoln Chafee is sinking into his increasingly desperate campaign simply cannot mask his record for higher taxes and wasteful spending."

"Since, according to the polling firm, undecided voters usually break for the challenger instead of the incumbent, the results show that Steve Laffey would likely win the GOP primary in Rhode Island if it were held today."

[RobFromGa]

Is that your own analysis of the House races? I sure hope you are right- I would hate to lose the House.

[Dimez Apart]

Its a grab and compare from a bunch of sites like Crystal Ball and others. People talk about how they think congress sucks, but in the same breath, they support their congressmen. That, and redistricting locks in the current incumbent candidates pretty well.

The '94 elections were so lope sided because Americans rejected radical changes put forth by the Democrats. The only 'radical' change this year is immigration 'reform'. People support it, even if they don't fully understand it. And both parties claim and have worked it in a 'bipartisan' manner. As far as the ordinary American goes, who gives two hoots about the ones that are here, because most Americans don't deal with the negative stuff on a regular basis. They just want the borders sealed so it never becomes 'their' problem down the road.
The Vietnam war never took down a party, just a President, and Iraq won't take down my party. Americans know that it would be wrong to leave the war in Iraq unfinished by shamefully retreating like a traitor named Murtha suggests. There will be no sweep in congress. The Dems will make minor gains. Thats it.

[RobFromGa]

thanks for the info...

[Lancey Howard]

Thanks for the great post!

Obviously, it's very early but I see better chances for Steele and Santorum than the analysis shows. Also, I put Allen in the "safe seat" category. He's a lock, IMO.

[zbigreddogz]

I think Kyl will win, but I think it will be a harder race then Allen vs. whoever.

Either way, I'd either have them both safe or both leans, because they are really close in comparability.

[RobFromGa]

I posted an update today, I'll take your input into account on the next update. Here's the link to the new thread:

SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- June 2006 Update

[PGalt]

Thanks. Good thread. BTTT.