"It was all the fault of the Perot voters."
Most of the Perot voters would have voted for Bush if he hadn't raised taxes. That was the key betrayal that was unforgiveable. He lied to them, and they retaliated.
Now, W hasn't lied to anybody. His Monday night speech was a rehash of where he has always stood, just presented in gussied-up and misleading language to try and make it look like something new. The President is honest about where he stands, but where he stands can't win. He was honest about his support for Miers too, but Miers was a bridge too far for the pro-lifers. In the end, the President had to back down in order to save the unity of the party. And in the Miers case, he did.
Here, the President doesn't really have the lead. He could have taken the lead on Monday night, but he repackaged amnesty and stepped-up weak enforcement of the Mexican border. So, the issue reposes in Congress. The House Republicans want heavy enforcement first. The Senate Republicans are split, with the leaders proposing guest worker and not proposing a full sealing of the border.
The two are far apart.
The President clearly will not change his position an inch, so leadership has to come from Congress.
So, will the Senate cave and agree to House-style enforcement?
I really don't think they will, but they might, and if they do, the President probably won't veto it. If that happens, the BorderBots will come back and the GOP will win this November.
Any other result, though - either a House capitulation to the Senate or status quo (which is an uncontrolled border and no effective enforcement) - and the BorderBots don't come back, we lose, and we have to put the party back together next year.
Another assumption I'll question is that the Dem rank-and-file want amnesty. I'd really like to see some polling on this. I know LOTS of Dems (old yella-dog TN types) why HATE the amnesty idea and think THEIR leaders are selling them up th globalist river. Most of the ones I know are Lou Dobbs loving union tradesmen. The others don't like the amnesty idea either. They might find a wall or the NG "harsh" in their liberal speak, but in no way do they want a guest-worker program or amnesty. I really dont' thnk there's much popular support for it at all, either party.
If they ram it through, there may be an upheaval in this country like we've not seen since the civil war. I think the revolt will be in far more than just the republican party.