The MSM are winning

"I noticed you did not you address the fact, yes fact, the rcp was RIGHT ON THE MARK on election day"

We are talking May 2006 right now.
In May 2006, RCP had Hanoi John Kerry comfortably ahead as well.

"The electorate is fickle--and Kerry probably had a slight lead at times--until the CBS forgery fiasco,,, "I was for it before I was against it",,,and the debates where the Pres did ok."

The liberal media, and even a lot of conservatives thought President Bush had been badly beaten in the first debate and still lost in the second debate.

"The poll aggregation was PRECISELY on target--just like the polls now are more than likely RIGHT ON TARGET"

Again, those pols had Hanoi John ahead most of 2004, like by this time in May 2004 for example.
Going by your reckoning, and following exactly what happened in the presidential elections in 2004, am I to take it then that Republicans are going to win come November, yes?

"My own self-admitted unscientific polls of family, neighbors, friends, relatives and coworkers show the current polls to be accurate--as the Pres has LOST a lot of support from all those OTHER than his solid base. There has been a great deal of movement AWAY from supporting him--while I find almost NO movement increasing support of him. Unscientific? YOU BET--but in line with what the polls are showing."

Now far be it from me to question your cute polls amongst your friends and family..let's just assume for a moment, that your "unscientific polls" about President Bush are right.
Well, it wouldn't matter much.
Why? Because House elections are mostly LOCAL affairs, and because of constituency gerrymandering by mostly the RATS under BJ Clinton, House seats rarely ever change hands, and incumbents hardly ever lose.
The seats have been so gerrymandered that where RATS win, they win very big, and here Republicans win they win very big.

The President poll numbers( even if correct, and even if they don't go up by November) have very little effect on who wins House seats.

You are going to have to give specific House seats that you think the RATS are going to take from Republicans, and your reasons why, so you can be challenged for those specific cases.

You can put whatever spin you want on my assertion that RCP poll aggregration is incredibly accurate,,,,or believe whatever you like,,,,BUT,,,

the only CONCRETE PROOF of the accuracy of the polls (and my assertion),,,,is the 'snap shot' on election day. THAT IS FACT (no guesswork, or 'what ifs' there). Everything else is conjecture, speculation, pure guesswork--and is totally meaningless.

That 'snap shot' on election day VALIDATED with facts,,,not speculation (which is what you use),,,,that my assertion is correct.

Like it not, the polls collectively have proven to be astoundingly accurate. As a whole, they are RARELY outside the margin of error--and aggregated, they are the best, most incredibly accurate gauge around.

Historical facts support that assertion. Speculation supports yours. Have a nice day.

"the only CONCRETE PROOF of the accuracy of the polls (and my assertion),,,,is the 'snap shot' on election day. THAT IS FACT (no guesswork, or 'what ifs' there). "

Again, we are not in November yet, and no one has any "snap shot" of elections day polls in November 2006 anywhere.
And the self-same RCP avearges you are talking about, had Hanoi John Kerry solidly ahead by this time in May 2004..Hanoi John ended up getting clobbered by President Bush in November 2004.
You are busy trying to claim that RCP averages in May are equivalent to RCP "snap shots" in November, which is simply incorrect.

Where in the world have I ever said that polls ('snap shots') in May equal actual results (actual 'snap shots' on election day) in November? I never said said anything even close to that. The actual results are the ONLY way to judge accuracy in polls on any particular ONE day.

Again, can put whatever spin you want on the polls,,,,or you can believe whatever you like. I'll stick with concrete proof--you can stick with your own projections. Have a nice day.

"Where in the world have I ever said that polls ('snap shots') in May equal actual results (actual 'snap shots' on election day) in November? I never said said anything even close to that. The actual results are the ONLY way to judge accuracy in polls on any particular ONE day."

So what exactly are you arguing about then?
We still don't have RCP averages for November 2006..yet.
We only have RCP averages for MAY, and RCP averages for May 2004 had Hanoi John Kerry comfortable on top too...and he lost in November

You simply don't have a point.

I don't have a point? LOL Give me a break.

My point is that RCP averages have proven to be INCREDIBLY accurate. I have election day results to prove that. What do you have to prove that they are NOT accurate on ANY GIVEN DAY? Nothing.

I cannot prove that polls prior to election day in 2004 were accurate--just like you cannot prove they were inaccurate. I cannot prove that the RCP polls taken today are accurate--just like you cannot prove they are inaccurate. The only proof we have is the proof on any GIVEN election day. Verifiable RCP results stand on their own merit.

For the umpteenth time, RCP polls have proven incredibly accurate on the days they can be accurately measured (election days). If you cannot understand the logic discussed above,,,there is no need for you to respond. I promise I won't waste anymore time on something so blatantly obvious. Have a nice day.

"My point is that RCP averages have proven to be INCREDIBLY accurate"

Your "point" (if there is actually such a thing) has all along been that since RCP averages have President Bush in trouble in May 2006, then it means Republicans are going to lose in November 2006.

Now that is simply not correct

RCP averages in November 2004 were quite different from RCP averages for May 2004, let alone RCP averages for for May 2006.

You keep going round in circles spewing out the same garbage over and over again. And you are as wrong now as you were hen you started off.
And I am going to have to keep hammering away at you, so far as you insist on spouting out the same flawed rubbish.

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