Most economists agree that nearly 45% of all jobs created since 9-11 were housing related in the broadest sense. It is very clear to me that they know what they are talking about.
Ameriquest Mortgage is closing all its retail offices across the country, laying off 3,800 workers.
Washington Mutual severely cut its mortgage staff in 2003 and just cut another 2,500 jobs this year. Other mortgage companies are
making similar cutbacks. If you do not choose to believe the evidence, there is nothing I can do about it. Wait until the end of the year. It is going to be very grim for mortgage brokers.
Net new jobs does not equal jobs - it is a change off a broad base, not the base itself. And a few thousand is peanuts, the economy adds a million net new jobs every year. Mortgage brokers live from refinancings, and obviously low rates encourage those. These days, people refinancing ARMs to lock in long rates while they are still reasonably low, is about the only sensible refinancing trade, and there isn't much sign of it yet. It is also a tiny business in employment terms. The large employers in real estate are (1) construction to make new stuff, because it takes a lot of labor, (2) realtors selling existing houses, because it is all so local and (3) to a lesser extent, management of existing properties, simply because there are lots of them.
The whole sector is less than 1/7th of the economy and might see changes at the margin of 20% at most. Nobody outside the sector will notice that very much. People will notice less cash coming out of refinancings, which is simply the knock on effect of higher interest rates and the whole reason the Fed is tightening to start with - because that easy-money gusher was setting off general inflation. That's sort of the point.