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To: x5452
The transition was never smooth. I personally know folks who lost everything they had when the ruble went from 5 to a dollar to 40 to a dollar.

There are always reasons to make it better than in the past.

As for Germany I was under the impresson there's a new pipe line going strait to them, they've got the best energy garuntee in the EU, I don't know much more than that.

Well - for us Germans it does not matter through which pipe our gas is coming. The pipes through Ukraine and Poland were also sure for us since we are the most important and reliable clients of Russia. The Russians can not afford to stop the deliveries to Ukraine and Poland since they would stop the deliveries to us then. It is more a problem of Russia if the Ukrainians are siphoning (stealing) gas since they have to pump more gas than they sell then. The Poles are for sure reliable clients (in difference to their neighbours in the east) and steal no gas, but they also have enough reasons to mistrust Russia. We all know that there is no warm friendship between Moscow and Warsaw. Well I think that Gasprom theoretically could deliver cheaper gas to Germany when the "black holes" in Belarus and Ukraine are closed. In reality we Germans will pay even more. Have you ever heared that energy prices were lowered??! The offshore-pipeline will cost millions and bazillions more than a conventional one. This has also be paid by German consumers.

Therefore we Germans have no benefit from the this offshore-pipeline. The security of our energy deliveries from Russia was never in danger since we are the ones to pay good cold cash for it. This pipeline makes only sense to Russia and Gasprom because they will soon be able to shut the lines through Ukraine and Belarus. Furthermore they can press the Poles to be more submissive to the Kremlin. Nothing of this is in our (German) interest. There is only one German who will cash in because of this new pipeline:

This guy is a traitor and Judas who sold his own people.

76 posted on 05/14/2006 2:26:17 AM PDT by Atlantic Bridge (De omnibus dubitandum.)
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To: Atlantic Bridge
The Russians can not afford to stop the deliveries to Ukraine and Poland since they would stop the deliveries to us then. It is more a problem of Russia if the Ukrainians are siphoning (stealing) gas since they have to pump more gas than they sell then. [...] Therefore we Germans have no benefit from the this offshore-pipeline.

At the same time the pipeline to China is being built.

78 posted on 05/14/2006 2:42:51 AM PDT by A. Pole (" There is no other god but Free Market, and Adam Smith is his prophet ! Bazaar Akbar! ")
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To: Atlantic Bridge

I don't think there is an easy way to a market economy. The only way to slow the process is to give control to politicians over when things become deregulated, and denationalized. and the extent to which that slows thee transition is directly proportional to the amoung of (inevitable) corruption of the players involved. The people get taken advantage of either way so the faster the better. (Because the faster, the less time the people are taken advantage of for). Especially in this scenerio seeing as Belarus doesnt own the resource in question, and as long as they get it cheap they will never be forced to break up the current soviet style economy.

A western appointed leader like Yushchenko wouldn't denationalize anything in Belarus (Just as Yushchenko has only left alone or renationalized in Ukraine). He would just start a nazi style nationalist movement in Belarus, and setup missles and bases for NATO (The military arm of the UN).

As for the gas pipeline I suspect it is a good investment for the germans, though you will probably be paying to help develop it and in the near term mostly to solve a problem that isn't your own. Still Poland and Ukraine are using increasingly antagonistic rhetoric, the time will come when Ukrain's antics or Poland insults do demand a real shutdown regardless o who is down the line. In this scenerio Europe benefits from lines that don't pass through the countries, and the countries directly attached to them benefit most.

That said, negotiations probably could have been better undertaken to give Germany a smaller increase in priec and more advantages, and it's likely from what you say that whats-his-name did sell out Germany in that sense.


100 posted on 05/14/2006 9:34:32 AM PDT by x5452
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