Yep, he's been looking at his numbers. They all have.
Trouble is, even though they know they have to do something about the border, they are extremely stubborn, and think that they're cleverer than they really are.
What the BorderBots want: A barrier that runs sea-to-sea, with construction to begin immediately. NO amnesty or guest worker. Enforcement against employers of illegals.
What the President and Congress look to be proposing: some increase in fences at select places on the border, (temporary) deployment of National Guard to help enforce the border, eventual amnesty and guest worker to be included in the bill, and symbolic enforcement of the immigration laws against a few employers.
What the President and Congress look to be offering looks like a bait and switch, and the BorderBots are having none of it. IF the President and Congress would agree to the FENCE, a FULL BARRIER, sea-to-shining sea, and just delay discussion of amnesty or guest worker until people see that fence going up, the President and the GOP would save themselves.
But they DON'T WANT TO DO THAT.
Why?
Because a Border Barrier is a decisive, irrevocable move that would actually have the effect of starting to really close the border, actually reducing dramatically the illegal influx. And that would impose some pretty high costs on the economy and business. So they're trying frantically to offer something that LOOKS LIKE border security, for a time, while avoiding doing the OBVIOUS, and the EFFECTIVE thing that the BorderBots want.
Now, I'll make a prediction. Bush will propose his vision, and it won't include a sea-to-sea fence. SOME of the BorderBots who desperately want to come back into the GOP fold will announce themselves satisfied, and that will be the reports: President's numbers improving. And they WILL improve.
Trouble is, it won't be by ENOUGH. There will still be plenty of BorderBots screaming that they have been ignored and the GOP is trying bait and switch, and they will not come out in November...which gives you a Democratic Congress in the election.
The only way to avoid that is to agree to a fence. There are plenty of Republican leaders who know that. I wonder if they will prevail on their too-clever-by-half colleagues to actually get it done and save the party this Fall.
Can you clarify your definition?
Good analysis.
I was reading your very long post, and before I even scrolled down to see what the name was I knew it was you. You have been very level-headed in this whole thing.