FWIW, here's my personal list for the GOP-held House seats:
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (CO-07) Beauprez*
3 (PA-06) Gerlach
4 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
5 (OH-18) Ney
Toss Up
6 (NM-01) Wilson
7 (NY-24) Boehlert*
8 (IN-09) Sodrel
9 (CT-02) Simmons
10 (IN-08) Hostettler
11 (CT-04) Shays
12 (WI-08) Green*
Lean Republican
13 (WA-08) Reichert
14 (FL-22) Shaw
15 (MN-06) Kennedy*
16 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
17 (OH-15) Pryce
18 (IL-06) Hyde*
19 (AZ-05) Hayworth
20 (CA-50) Cunningham*
21 (KY-04) Davis
22 (NC-11) Taylor
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (PA-07) Weldon
25 (IN-02) Chocola
26 (NY-20) Sweeney
27 (CA-11) Pombo
28 (TX-22) DeLay*
Likely Republican
29 (CO-04) Musgrave
30 (FL-13) Harris*
31 (VA-02) Drake
32 (NY-25) Walsh
33 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
34 (CT-05) Johnson
35 (NY-26) Reynolds
36 (FL-08) Keller
37 (PA-10) Sherwood
38 (KY-03) Northup
39 (NY-29) Kuhl
40 (NH-01) Bradley
41 (NV-03) Porter
42 (WY-AL) Cubin
43 (MN-01) Gutknecht
44 (NV-02) Gibbons*
45 (NY-19) Kelly
46 (MN-02) Kline
47 (NH-02) Bass
48 (KY-02) Lewis
Watch List
49 (NJ-07) Ferguson
50 (PA-04) Hart
51 (IA-02) Leach
52 (MT-AL) Rehberg
53 (WV-02) Capito
54 (NY-03) King
55 (IL-10) Kirk
56 (FL-16) Foley
57 (CA-26) Dreier
58 (IL-11) Weller
59 (NE-01) Fortenberry
And why do you think AZ 8 leans to the Dems? There are more Republicans in the district, and if the right person wins the primary (Graf), with people so concerned about the border, he'll get a lot of crossover votes.
The Dems in the district offer no solutions.