Expert: H5N1 Worst Flu Virus He's Ever Seen

Fox News ^ | 5-4-2006

[blam]

Expert: H5N1 Worst Flu Virus He's Ever Seen

Thursday, May 04, 2006

SINGAPORE — A leading expert said Thursday the H5N1 virus is the worst flu virus he's ever encountered, and far too many gaps in planning and knowledge persist for the world to handle it in the event of a pandemic.

The virus is a vicious killer in poultry, moving into the brain and destroying the respiratory tract, said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

"I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen," said Webster, who has studied avian flu for decades. "If that happens in humans, God help us."

(For complete bird flu coverage, visit Foxnews.com's Bird Flu Center.)

So far, most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus will mutate into a form that easily spreads from person to person, potentially sparking a global pandemic.

Webster predicted it would take at least 10 more mutations before the H5N1 virus could potentially begin spreading from human to human, but said there's no way to know when — or if — that will ever happen.

"All of those mutations are out there, but ... the virus hasn't succeeded in bringing it together," he said at the end of a two-day bird flu conference in Singapore organized by The Lancet medical journal.

Webster also called for more vaccine to be stockpiled, calling current efforts "miserable."

He said research in ferrets suggests that vaccination with a bird flu virus that circulated earlier in Hong Kong protected the animals from dying when they were later infected with the H5N1 virus now spreading in Vietnam. Such vaccination could potentially be used as a primer...

[Doe Eyes]

I agree panic is not the answer, but in this case, a ounce of prevention may well be worth more than a pound of cure.

I posted before I saw your response, but that is where I was heading.

In business, we now do "risk management".

In simple terms, what are the chances that something bad will happen, what that bad thing would it cost us, and what will it cost us to mitigate this.

When it comes to H5N1, it is probably worth investing some money in risk mitigation, which would be vaccine research, drug research, potential quarantines, ...

[Lurker]

The flu that killed over 10,000,000 in 1918-1919 started as a bird flu

Small correction. The Spanish flu epidemic is thought to have started as a bird flu, but no one really knows for sure. It could have been birds, it could have been pigs. There's no definitive evidence as to what it's vector was.

I've done more than just a little research. I'm engaged in a lot of the prep work for an outbreak down at the local government level. Do we have plans? You betcha. Do we have access to stockpiles of drugs? You betcha. Are we getting the best professional advice from our Public Health Dept we can? You betcha.

But what I refuse to do is engage in this near hysteria over something that all the serious PH people I know say is an almost vanishingly small probability.

But this disease is an opportunity for ABC to make a MOTW, for drug companies to get massive orders for drug stockpiles, and it's mostly an excuse for politicians to spend scads of money that will largely end up being wasted.

L

[blam]

"If you cook it thoroughly, is it safe? Or does the virus live through the frying pan?"

Cooking will kill the virus. However, I wouldn't want an infected chicken (dead or alive) anywhere near me.

[mewzilla]

Bird flu's an upper respiratory bug, though, right? So infection from ingestion isn't likely, is it? Or don't they know?

[blam]

"I'll just head to the mountains for a couple weeks until it clears."

If it goes H2H, it won't 'clear' in a couple weeks.

[Porterville]

Fine; 2 weeks and a day.

[Doe Eyes]

But what I refuse to do is engage in this near hysteria over something that all the serious PH people I know say is an almost vanishingly small probability.

So what is this "vanishingly small probability"?

That kind of information might get rid of this "near hysteria".

[spunkets]

" The Spanish flu epidemic is thought to have started as a bird flu, but no one really knows for sure.

It is known for sure since the actual virus was obtained from frozen dead victims. Piga are immunologically so close to humans, there organs are prefeable for human transplant. There's little difference in pigs and human's as far as viral transmission goes. It's the just from birds to elsewhere that's notable.

[oh8eleven]

And the experts say there's a genuine threat ...
Hey, C. Little, pick one of these and DON'T take it off.

[macamadamia]

"I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen," said Webster, who has studied avian flu for decades. "If that happens in humans, God help us because if you survive, everything will taste like chicken."

[Oorang]

LOL - good reply BearWash. Now I know why basements and Lysol go so well together.

[Cvengr]

Whatever the recent cold/flu/bug that is going around the west coast is also going around Ohio and Florida.

People never really seem to get over it, it merely hibernates, incubates, and returns after 2-3 weeks.

Most people we know are on the 3rd to 4th run, each time making its presence known for about 2-3 wks with post nasal drip and sinus congestion. We first got it in Feb and are now wrapping up a 3rd comeback.

Those who have had it five times believe it peters out about then.

[Straight Vermonter]

You have about as much chance of being hit by lightning twice, on your penis, while standing on your head in a basement as you do of catching this virus.

Post of the day! LOL

[blam]

Chaos Feared In Pandemic Flu Plan

"A flu pandemic would cause massive disruptions lasting for months, and cities, states and businesses must make plans now to keep functioning — and not count on a federal rescue, the Bush administration said Wednesday."

[Oorang]

H5N1 article ping

[mouser]

I am old enough to remember the swine flu pandemic that never happened. This is being hyped just like it. In the end more people were killed by the shot to prevent it and some became paralyzed by the shot also. in the end no one that I remember died from the flu.

[TalBlack]

"The rub is how much of a threat there is."

The threat is that nature is going to do one of its cute tricks with disease but I seriously doubt that we'll see it coming. We never seem to do.

It can come from anywhere, ie; disease in crops, disease in humans etc..

Me, I don't sweat it because it's gonna happen sooner or later and when it does probably very fast, that's the nature of Nature.

[Lurker]

So what is this "vanishingly small probability"?

Right now your odds of contracting bird flu are something on the order of 1 in about 700,000,000 and then only if you actually live with your poultry. I mean really live with it, not just have a coop on your property. In nearly every case of b2h transmission the birds have been in the house with the victims.

But Miller Beer, Chevy, and Viagra won't buy advertising slots for a MOTW in which no one in America dies of a disease that only infects chickens in 3rd world countries. It would also be extremely difficult for anyone to get funding from the government if they didn't use words like 'potential threat' and 'catastrophic worst case scenario'.

L

[spunkets]

LOL!

[Hilltop]

Have you tested your hypothesis? If so.....