Here's something else to add. Note how production increased dramatically in response to price increases in 1999 and 2002. But it appears that production can't be increased further in response to the latest increase in prices.
Posted on 05/03/2006 6:42:16 PM PDT by mc6809e
This post is for the benefit of those readers whose friends or relatives just spat out their coffee over their morning New York Times in surprise that oil is starting to run out and nobody warned them before now. If you are looking around for more background information, I would like to summarize a series of arguments and analyses that have led me to the view that peak oil is most likely occurring about now, give or take a year or two. My personal coffee-spitting incident occurred about a year ago, and this is some of what I've figured out in the meantime. This is a quick summary of past analyses with links for further detail.
(Excerpt) Read more at theoildrum.com ...
Am I wrong?
Neither, it's tied to faith.
Faith that we are running out, in a world awash in oil.
http://www.rense.com/general54/ssust.htm
Your thoughts on Dr. Thomas Gold's theory?
"Peak oil" usually refers to the peak in production. Of course peak production is tied to reserves in the sense that the first half of reserves is the "easy" oil, while the second half is much harder to get at and so production tends to decline.
The top graph has a very small domain, and I don't feel comfortable predicting long future trends out of it. The second graph looks like a steadily increasing trend with a regular cycle attached to it. But I'm not an economist.
Yeah, I saw it back in March - March 2003, that is.
Where's all the oil that was supposed to be available in 2005?
I still hope, though. It would be great if the Gulf of Mexico could bail us out. Of course, it would simply move the point of peak production a little further into the future.
It is a BS Story, that 100 x 100 area has about 100 production platforms on it now.
TT
Ah, but note the recent break in the cycle.
The point of the second graph is to show how increases in price in the past have yielded increases in production. Prices start going back up after a decline, then production goes back up to met the increased demand.
But now we have a difference. Price continue to rise but production after 2004 doesn't keep up.
That's important, because it suggests that production CAN'T be increased.
"Neither, it's tied to faith."
bingo
Take a look at the second graph. It should be obvious that production increase follow price increase by about 6 months.
Yet, after 2004, production seems to have plateaued. The new production you argue exists seems to be over a year late!
great article - Inever could figure out how all these dead dinosaurs wound up 5 miles deep under primordal salt domes
Is every story these days about oil a Doom and Gloom story. The world is coming to an end and everyone should be running around screaming "woe is me".
My God... everything you read today is to scare the ba-jesus out of everybody.
I'm tired of it! There will be oil pumped out of the ground for the next 100 years! And my "guess" is as good as any other person's guess.
placemarker
World oil production was greater in 2005 than in 2004.
The sky is falling the sky is falling.....give me a break!
That about sums it up. People have been claiming Peak Oil for years.
Of course, I'm all for alternate fuels and domestic drilling - currently the cheapest source remains the mid-east - not my favorite place.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.