This from Charlie Cook in an email, which suggests maybe why the RNC chairman has pushed the panic button. Holding the midterm election right now, might be highly unfortunate for the GOP (the numbers are the numbers):
"In the other variation of what has come to be known as the generic congressional ballot test, when people were asked whether they planned on voting for the Democratic candidate for Congress or the Republican, Democrats led by 12 points among adults, 44-32 percent; by 13 points among registered voters, 45-32 percent; and by a whopping 18 points among those most likely to vote, 50-32 percent.
There's no campaign. I don't get why these numbers are horrible.
The Republicans NEVER lead in the generic preference for Congress. They were forecast to lose seats when they won both Houses of Congress in 1994.
If the election were held today the Democrats would be the beneficiaries of a 1994-style tsunami. Statistically, and by historical standards, that means they'd win about 75% of the competitive races. If so, then right now they'd almost certainly pick up the House with a net gain of +19 or +20 and come close to picking up the Senate with a net gain of +4.
Yes, there's been some buzz of late about how the Senate has flipped the last however many times the House has flipped, but that ignores how the current House margin is relatively much narrower than the current Senate margin, unlike in those other elections.