He doesn't think the US has the cojones to attack Iran and he thinks he can simply overpower Israel, plus he's just jacking up the price of oil for his own benefit and to the detriment of the US economy and political scene. When oil gets high, Bush gets trashed, when Bush loses, republicans lose and wimp ass dem's win...this helps Mahmoud. Very clever he is...but he doesn't realize just how much fire he's playing with.
if he is betting on President Bush not being willing to fight the he is nuts. Maybe he thinks congress wont authorize it. Heck, congress might not even shut down a filibuster over it. Excellent point about oil prices. But this Presidents has no need to run for reelection and has shown more willingness to invade than any other President.