Posted on 05/01/2006 12:55:59 PM PDT by Paul -V-
McEwen concedes.
The Chocola-Donnelly race should be very close. For one, Chocola got 54.2% against Donnelly in 2004, and if the polls swing toward the Dems as much as is currently indicated that alone would make this a Toss Up or close to it.
On the flip-side though, Chocola outspent Donnelly a bit more than 2 to 1 last time, and so far this time Chocola has outraised Donnelly by more than 3 to 1 (mainly due to a fundraising trip by GWB).
And Ralph Regula wins his race.
PS. FWIW, as I've been revising my House ratings for the six-months-out installment, I decided I've been underrating the Chocola contest. Haven't really decided where I think it should go. I was waiting for tonight's results before I wrapped up my revisions, since the Ohio races were the most undefined.
Granted, I might be way off, but that's what I think!
I am going to rest my case, and stand by my previous comment. The GOP has suffered about a 5% swing against it (10% overall, when you add plus 5% and minus 5%), and that is curtains. The Pubbies will have to turn it around in the Great Lakes states, and they will lose all the seats that are really in play. That is my guess.
Actually, I might slightly revise what I said, since I initially based my comment on Torie's post that Chocola only had 17k (!) votes in the primary, which I thought might be a typo, and apparently it was 37k, so perhaps he did as much campaigning as could be expected. The end result may be much the same for him in November as it was in '04 with this rematch, barring a complete meltdown.
The general election matchup between Rep. Bob Ney and Dover legal director Zack Space should, at the very least, be fun to watch.
Space, a political neophyte, defeated Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer tonight for the right to take on the scandal-implicated incumbent. But his campaign may need a makeover of sorts now that he'll be getting loads of national media attention.
Space's campaign has been devoid of the seasoned political operatives prevalent in most major races. His father, Socrates Space, has played an outsized role so far in his campaign The younger Space only ran after failing to recruit more seasoned politicians from his home base. He had to remove an image of scantily-clad cheerleaders from a MySpace profile early on in the campaign. And his first and only advertisement suggests he'll need an infusion of charisma to improve his chances against Ney.
That said, Ney's 67% primary performance against an obscure opponent indicates he's very vulnerable, regardless of who's on the ballot. DeLay won 62% of the vote against a better-funded challenger last month, and announced his resignation from Congress soon thereafter. It wouldn't be surprising if Republicans place similar pressure on Ney to step down to help the party carry this normally safe GOP seat. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Yeah, these are not good primary GOP turnout numbers compared with 2002, for whatever that's worth. And more importantly, in my view, several of the GOP incumbents are getting weak percentages for an incumbent. Chocola for instance is gonna end up right around 70% it seems. I think that's more significant than the comparative partisan turnout figures, which can be influenced by all kind of factors.
Ya my 10% figure was kind of a mix and match gut thing. It isn't in stone. But incumbents in marginal districts just are not showing any strength at all. I need to check on Regula.
Ah, OK, then I guess I'm back to what I concluded originally. =spinning head=
Well Regula will end up with about 57% of the vote. Splendid. But the partisan vote is about 38K ro 27K, Pubbie, so it just seems the rural counties don't like Canton. In the Pryce district, she got 24K, and the the Dems in a contested primary, 18.5K. So I guess she should be happy, for the moment.
Mary Jo Kilroy was the only Dem running to face Pryce. It was not contested. Kilroy has 23,783 votes; Pryce has 35,131 votes. That's what the SoS website has with all but 3.02% of the Franklin Co. precincts reported.
PS. But, in my view that's another example of why primary numbers can be deceptive. The only race to really drive turnout in the OH-15 district was the GOP primary for governor.
PPS. The Dem candidates to oppose Regula are nearly total nonentities. And they've reported a grand total of $0.00 between them. With a modest investment, I could probably run a more effective campaign for that seat from here..
The margin is probably razor-thin because the Dem voters are probably just randomly picking whichever name they like more.
PPPS. If anything, what the Regula numbers probably should be taken to signify is the overall discontent of the Ohio GOP voters. Similarly, DeWine's 71% at the moment isn't anything to dance a jig about..
PPPPS. And, last but not least, the OH-06 turnout figures strike me as downright dreadful for the GOP. So far, Chuck Wilson alone has got nearly as many write-in votes (33,290) as the combined vote total of the GOP candidates (33,857). The Dems combined have 52,501.
Regula lost the rural counties, while winning 2-1 in Canton. The rural counties in Ohio begin to remind me of Northwestern Minnesota. They are becoming fickle.
Dewine seems strong in a poll I trust for the General, and some Freepers thought he was in trouble in the primary. The RINO just spelled out the true balance in Ohio between the two camps.
The great unknown for Ohio, even more so than elsewhere, will be turnout. It doesn't matter who the voters would vote for if they don't show up at the polls. So-called 'wave' elections are the result of depressed turn-out for the losing party more so than any other factor. I know you know all this.
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