Posted on 05/01/2006 6:48:45 AM PDT by Wiz
New York (KurdishMedia.com) 1 May 2006: Recent reports of massive Turkish troop movements have received much coverage in the Kurdish and Turkish media, and caused a great deal of anxiety among Kurds in the Diaspora. Once again, as in years past, Kurds scattered throughout the globe, in London, continental Europe, the United States, and elsewhere, find themselves fearing a large scale Turkish invasion of southern Kurdistan, the portion of Kurdistan lying within Iraq’s borders. The media worldwide has reported that 200,000 Turkish soldiers have moved to the Turkey-Iraq border, ostensibly to put pressure on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In southern Kurdistan, the people are certainly aware of recent developments, but seem unconcerned. A KurdishMedia.com reporter in Suleimani remarked that a substantial segment of the population views this movement of Turkish troops as nothing more than a “parade”. Indeed, many are quite cognizant of the fact that, even with Turkish troops at the Turkey-Iraq border, they are quite far from Kirkuk. It would take many hours for Turkish tanks to reach Kirkuk, and it is doubtful that the Turkish military can even maintain a supply line from the Turkish border all the way to the city. Indeed, even the United States armed forces faced challenges in maintaining a stretched supply line during the initial invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Furthermore, many southern Kurdistanis believe that as long as US forces remain in Iraq, they will not allow Turkey to invade any part of the country.
In northern Kurdistan, the people equally aware of the situation in southern Kurdistan. Most of their information comes from the Turkish media, which is currently intensifying its campaign of pro-state propaganda and showcasing the strengths of the Turkish armed forces. While the Turkish media portray a Turkish invasion of the south as quite possible, the masses in northern Kurdistan are well aware of the propagandistic tendencies of the Turkish media and are not taking these reports at face value. The people of northern Kurdistan, for the most part, rightfully care about the Kurds of Iraq as brothers, and they do not want to see the Turkish forces cross the southern border. Right now, the people of northern Kurdistan are watching to see what will happen, and are concerned over not only a Turkish invasion of southern Kurdistan but also a possible Turkish invasion of eastern (Iranian-occupied) Kurdistan in pursuit of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK). Meanwhile clashes between Turkish soldiers and PKK fighters continue to occur in northern Kurdistan, and Iranian security forces and PJAK fighters in eastern Kurdistan continue to battle one another. According to the Turkish media, there is currently a small Turkish military presence in Iran aimed at fighting PJAK.
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I hope the EU is watching this very closely. This could be the last straw for Turkey and their bid to get into the EU.
Am interested in your view...
PKK attacks in Turkey is creating a situation in which it is almost guaranteed that the Turks will enter Kurdistan in hot pursuit.
The establishment Kurds will probably not be able to get PKK under control, I suspect the US doesn't want to deal with them either. The easiest solution is for the Turks to do it, in an incursion that is strictly limited in scope, and that both the US and the other Kurds will not oppose it.
The problem is the appearance of coordination between Turkey and Iran. If Iran crosses the border, the US will no doubt respond to stop them, and if Turkey advances beyond PKK's area the US would be forced to respond, and the result will not be pretty.
Turks, US, and Iraqi Kurds need to be talking right now, to make sure everyone knows what everyone else is doing. If Turks cross over in hot pursuit, they must know pretty explicitly where the "trip" line is, if they want to avoid triggering a war with both the US and the Kurds. I would expect all this is being handled below the table.
Thanks for the ping.
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