Yea, we've had such disruptions.... lets see.. IRAQ came ONLINE as a possible supllier to the US.. which it was not before because of the Sanctions... Yea, whole lots of uncertainty... NOT.
What is going on is simple bubble nonsense... hedge funds et all are now in existance with a mandate just to buy oil futures.. well guess what? There are only so many of them... so what happens? THey have to spend their money on oil, no matter how rediculous the price is... its their mandate... so they are basically trading futures contracts with one another because there is more greed than good sense... I buy it from hedge fund A for $60.. they sell it to hedge fund B a week later for $65... who sells it back to fund A for $70 a week later.. its a CLASSIC BUBBLE....
It has NOTHING, NOTHING to do with supplies, or demand or even refinery capacity. Combine this with the reality that the futures market can be manipulated very easily and that controls and enforcement of such actions are even less likely there there are for the regular stock market... and you can pretty much see what's going on.
There is no shortage of supply, in fact Saudi Arabia has flat out said they have been producing more than they can sell on a daily basis.... Demand, worldwide has actually fallen some, not increased.. and the price is still going up by leaps and bounds... its called SPECULATIVE BUBBLE folks... same thing that was going on in tech stocks in 99.
Yes, there are elements of a 'bubble' in this oil market, spurred by tension in the Middle East, Katrina disruptions, Iranian uncertainty and increased demand from India and China. This all makes the future very uncertain.
The hysteria element to this or any price spike will be short-lived. Don't trade in the SUV for a Prius just yet.