Posted on 04/23/2006 7:22:07 PM PDT by RWR8189
NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.
There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.
Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.
More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.
In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004. Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls. "By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years--and less infrastructure for a national campaign. The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible."
With the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired. In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency. This is a disastrous number for Republicans. Of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents.
Low job approval can have a double whammy effect. By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low. In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher.
The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment. Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in Congress. This, in turn, leads to lower turnout.
It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans. There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff. He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party. And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy Card. He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans.
A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout. They aren't a big secret. Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats. They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular.
So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon. Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research. And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation. If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating.
But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer. A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened. It would help. And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing.
The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006. It's not everything. It's the only thing. For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum).
Um, Sorry Fred. I know you're trying to avoid the elephant in the room. Then again, one of your co-writers said with a smirk on Fox Sunday a few weeks ago that he wholly supports leaving the border wide open.
So apparently does President Bush and a goodly number of Republicans.
Fears of a Democratic takeover might motivate the Bots. Perhaps along with getting the illegals to the polls, Republicans will not have much to worry about.
I am a Conservative first and foremost, and if an appeal to faction is all Karl Rove's got, well then we may see a loss of seats.
If they really want to get out the vote, they are going to have to have more of a platform than "we are not Democrats". That will get them some votes, but it is not going to do the job.
They need to address the fundamentals. Smaller government, smaller budgets, fewer taxes, more individual freedom, secure borders, and national security to name a few that they seem to be overlooking.
The party in power usually loses seats in the off year election. The GOAL is to limit the total to a handful. Bucking historical norms is difficult in an altogether way, but holding the number in check is doable and worth doing.
Remember. Always. It is not and never will be what you get. It is what you prevented from happening. Defeat of the Democrats ALWAYS, no exceptions, takes priority. Avoidance of too much a move to the left is just as powerful as trying for a move to the right.
LOL!
Message to leadership: STOP GIVING OUR COUNTRY AWAY.
This message brought by the more than 66% of ALL Americans who are sick and tired of playing 'coddle the illegal alien.'
Not hearing the phrase "Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi."
GOPs fault not mine.
This article is total bunk. Rove has spent six years kissing up to everyone left of center, and making it clear Republicans are lower than dirt. Why would he change his theory now?
I hate to be nitpicky, but I think the anger needs to be directed at the other party in order to indicate a big turnout...
I don't buy that. They may make a lot of noise, but at the end of the day, they will never vote on impeachment.
I think that if we want to shake up the GOP establishment, we replace some RINOs in the primaries inastead of electing Dims in the general election...
I wouldn't mind him running in '08, but I doubt it will happen.
If the democrats win the House they will impeach President Bush in time of war.
This will bring Republicans and Republican leaning independents by droves to the polls.
This message does nothing for me, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Fear mongering the electorate on the notion that Bush would be impeached under a Democratic Congress is not going to get the GOP more votes this November.
We shouldn't be afraid of impeachment anyway. Last I checked, impeachment required hearings and all sorts of investigations. If that happens, the Democrats will lose a whole lot of their potential talking points for 2008, because the truth will finally come out in an official venue.
If the GOP wants to win this November, it can start by actually doing something good, and something that resembles GOP principles. Sadly, that's not going to happen, so like many others, I really could care less whether this Congress falls to the Democrats or not. It's not going to be the end of the world if the Democrats win, and it may even restrain spending because the government will be at a stalemate.
"Sorry...we'd like to go to the polls, Fred, but we can't afford the gas."
Yup, I saw George out there this morning, pole in hand, personally putting the $3.29 9/10 sign on the gas station sign.
IDIOT!
Bush can get a two-fer. Cut taxes by 10% and cut government spending. The tax cut WILL help with the cost of gas. He's got the WOT. How about the War on Socialism?
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