Posted on 04/21/2006 3:43:00 PM PDT by AntiGuv
Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin is a known commodity in Wyoming, which has fewer people than any other state and an electorate in which Republican registrants outnumber Democrats by a 2-to-1 ratio.
Yet Cubin — who first won for Congress in 1994 — is not the most popular Republican to have held Wyoming’s only House seat, which previously was held by current two-term Sen. Craig Thomas and incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney. While the GOP ticket of President Bush and Cheney was sopping up 69 percent of the Wyoming vote in 2004, Cubin was elected to a seventh term with 55 percent.
This modest vote share — combined with the emergence of a Democratic challenger, Gary Trauner, who has a business background and some fundraising potential — has spurred CQPolitics.com to change its rating on this year’s House race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.
The new rating means that the odds still strongly favor Cubin’s re-election, but that an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
Trauner was a co-founder and executive with a regional Internet service provider, based in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that was sold to another telecommunications company not long ago. Though a relative newcomer — he and his family moved to Wyoming 16 years ago — he has held several local elected positions.
His campaign has the opportunity to build on concerns about Cubin, including her absenteeism during the 107th and 108th Congresses, when she missed numerous roll call votes. Cubin says she had to miss work to care for her husband, Frederick, who was ailing.
Cubin enters this year’s contests with some significant strengths. She has a seat on the influential Energy and Commerce Committee and the Resources Committees — both of which are strategically important for a state that relies economically on the development of its bounteous natural resources.
But she also has weaknesses, some of which stem from an outspoken manner that has at times spurred controversy.
Just before her first House race, Cubin survived controversy in the state Senate: She reportedly received a basket of penis-shaped cookies and distributed them to male colleagues she said were in on the joke.
A fervent opponent of restrictions on gun ownership, Cubin said during a House floor debate in 2003 that a proposed amendment would have barred the sale of guns “to anybody who was on drugs or in drug treatment.”
Cubin then added, “Well, does that mean if you go into a black community, you can’t sell guns to any black person?” She subsequently apologized after some House members portrayed the remark as racist, for seeming to imply that all black people were either on drugs or in drug treatment.
Incidents such as these have eroded Cubin’s popularity in Wyoming, despite the strong Republican base in the state. A Mason-Dixon poll released in February showed 53 percent of state respondents said Cubin was doing a “fair” or “poor” job as congresswoman. When lined up in a two-way race against Trauner — then relatively unknown — Cubin pulled in 54 percent to 32 percent for the Democratic candidate.
Even Bush, despite his overwhelming Wyoming wins in 2000 and 2004, does not appear as much of a pillar for Cubin this year. The most recent state poll by SurveyUSA showed the president’s approval rating down to 56 percent.
And both were running well behind Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a rare statewide Democratic officeholder, who enjoyed a 68 percent approval rating. Bolstered by his image as a conservative Democrat and his neighborly manner, Freudenthal is strongly favored in his bid this year for a second term.
Trauner, meanwhile, has raised more early money than even his supporters expected. He had $220,000 in total receipts as of March 31, without accepting money from political action committees (PACs). That figure is well more than half the $373,000 raised for the entire 2004 campaign by Cubin’s Democratic challenger, Ted Ladd.
Cubin took in $287,000 from PACs as of March 31, 70 percent of her total $414,000 in receipts. Her advantage is partially offset by her high burn rate: Cubin’s Federal Election Commission filings indicate she has spent $282,000 since this election cycle began, the largest portion going to fundraising efforts, according to PoliticalMoneyLine.com.
By the end of this year’s first quarter, the two candidates were nearly evenly matched in remaining cash on hand, with $173,000 for Cubin and $157,000 for Trauner.
Democrats argue Trauner is Cubin’s strongest Democratic opponent since her initial House campaign in 1994, when Jackson attorney Bob Schuster held her to 53 percent of the vote. And Kate Bedingfield, a spokeswoman with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Trauner’s fundraising pace in the first quarter “indicates that voters are ready for change this fall.”
Cubin Campaign Manager Bill Maiers did not return calls for comment.
If she is at risk, she'd most likely not survive the primary.
That could very well be the case. Cubin only got 55% of the vote in the 2004 primary, and her main opponent (Bruce Asay) is running again.
That would only be true if she were to draw a single strong primary opponent. That has yet to happen.
I wonder why Cubin is so weak.
Opps, I missed the "strong" adjective in your comment, sorry.
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