Oil is being priced right now for war. If there's a negotiated settlement, the price is going to fall hard. If there's a war, it'll spike some more but methinks a lot is already priced in.
I think that you are correct.
Today, I plan to recalculate my loss stop orders on any of our index funds with connections to the oil industry to a current 6-8% max loss on the new gains. That will preserve most of the gains this past month.
Tuesday was the best over all day for our 401ks and IRAS mutual funds and ETF's since the phoney baloney days of the Clintoon/Enron days. The gains were across the board with some of the foriegn funds gaining well over 3% Tuesday and followed by 1+% gains yesterday. Many American funds ran at about 2% for the day. Many of our funds are running at excellent ytd rates versus last year and the 3 years before.
Fidelity's money funds are bringing in about 4.4% current rate and they have a lot of FDIC CDs at well over 5% without that long of a holding time. So I may be trimming off the gains where I can without a penalty re holding the funds for too short of a time.
There are a lot of nice alternatives out there for those of us who look for them.