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I counted more than 1 million open interest contracts last Monday. More on 2 oil than crude, but still looks like a house of cards if demand craters and I think its possible at $3/gal gas.

Useful thoughts, might be spot on, too. However, why guess at all? Energy will top out when it tops out...AND...there's a very good and historically dead accurate method of telling when it has done so.

Wait for the parabolic top and the inevitable correction. Then, wait for the secondary run at the old highs -- there has been a secondary run in every parabolic bull mkt in history, bar Jan 2000 NG -- and then sell on the 2nd day down after the secondary top fails. If the second run makes new highs (never has, btw), keep playing the waiting game, then enter when the next run fails, same conditions. License to print money.

Looks like this setup will occur in SI before HO or CL, though. Who knows, may get a double play this year (and that would be suh-weet indeed!)

Further details in ''Trading Options To Win'', pp.226-231.

Also, fwiw, I think the crack spreads are going to offer huge opportunities later this year. What say you?