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To: Toddsterpatriot
How would "smoothing" turn no correlation into correlation?

Because it was never "no" correlation. I believe it in fact tracks pretty closely when smoothed from 2000 to 2006. Let's first look at the Chamber of Commerce Chart where you so absurdly claim "NO" relationship:

Here is the recent range from a chart from 2003 to 2005...

When looked at the broader indices of major currencies besides the volatile EU, this is what we see:


The trend is definitely down.

It is mirrored in the simultaneous rise in commodity prices:

The above-noted Commerce chart was posted trying to disprove the relationship of the two listed factors. It failed to to do, first, because it was flawed by failing to acknowedge the multivariant nature of relationships...i.e., it is more than the two factors...albeit they are clearly not unrelated.

Policies in the countries whose baseline currencies are used for comparison are not static. There is give and take, changes of governments and administrations, or other indigenous and exogenous economic factors... Etc.

These make a real difference, as we saw with the political turbulence in the EU as that did a lot to hurt their financial credibility of the EU currency with the failed consitutional votes. There are staggered effects from these swings in valuation. One example: AirBus exploited the currency downturn to sew up a bunch of additional sales and clinched another year ahead of Boeing's commercial sales.

And if the comparison had been done against China...with its artificially-maintained peg...you would have seen a flat dollar...as the deficit mushroomed to over $200 billion annually.

I have no inclination to be a gold bug, but I saw a TraderDan quote from one Jim Sinclair which was a pretty fair assessment of the situation which you are blithely denying:

"Perhaps one of the great tragedies that will be written across the history of our nation in generations to come will be our own lack of the sense of history.

No matter how those who insist that a debt based economy is nothing to be concerned with, history and the scriptures teach “the borrower becomes the lender’s slave”.

By my last count, the US trade deficit for 2005 came in near $723 billion. This year is slated to exceed that number and perhaps push closer to $800 billion. As the following story makes clear, China has now surpassed Japan for the honors of possessing the largest foreign reserves with an astounding $853.6 billion. Much of this is due to their huge trade surplus.

One only needs to study history to see economic power and supremacy have been gradually moving further and further East.

This generation will go down in history as the generation that spent itself into the brink and in the process plundered their children’s future."


22 posted on 04/20/2006 12:25:13 PM PDT by Paul Ross (We cannot be for lawful ordinances and for an alien conspiracy at one and the same moment.-Cicero)
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To: Paul Ross
Because it was never "no" correlation.

Please, spell it out. What is the correlation that you see?

I believe it in fact tracks pretty closely when smoothed from 2000 to 2006.

Please explain this smoothing you're doing and how it shows that a bigger deficit equals a weaker dollar.

24 posted on 04/20/2006 12:38:57 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Why are protectionists so bad at math?)
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