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Barone: Will Democrats Win Control of the House in November?
Creator's Syndicate ^ | April 17, 2006 | Michael Barone

Posted on 04/17/2006 3:44:17 AM PDT by RWR8189

Will Democrats win control of the House in November? It's a question lots of people have been asking in Washington and around the country these days. It seems possible, certainly. Democrats only have to make a net gain of 15 seats to win a majority. But it's also true that, with the single and large exception of 1994, neither party has made a net gain of more than 10 House seats over the last 20 years.

I think there are two plausible hypotheses about how House elections work. If Hypothesis One applies, Democrats have a good chance at gaining a majority. If Hypothese Two applies, they don't.

Hypothesis One sees House elections as a referendum on the president and his party. If the president's job rating is above 50 percent, his party tends to suffer only narrow losses or even, as in 1934 and 1998 -- and almost in 1962 -- makes gains. If the president's job rating is significantly under 50 percent, his party tends to lose lots of seats.

The theory is plausible, and fits many election results over the years. Presidents Roosevelt, Kennedy and Clinton had high job ratings in 1934, 1962 and 1998. President Johnson in 1966, President Nixon in 1974, President Reagan in 1982 and President Clinton in 1994 had job ratings under 50 percent, and their parties all lost many seats in those years.

Currently, George W. Bush's job rating is hovering around 38 percent. Under Hypothesis One, Republicans should lose lots of House seats -- quite possibly more than the magic number of 15.

Hypothesis One was developed by political scientists and psephologists over many years. Hypothesis Two is one I developed myself, and it's based only on the elections of the last 10 years. In the five House elections from 1996 to 2004, there has been very little variation in the popular vote percentages for both parties. The Republican percentage of the popular vote for the House has fluctuated between 49 and 51 percent, the Democratic percentage between 46 and 48.5 percent.

This has been true despite great differences in the job ratings of the parties' leading figures. Republicans won pluralities of the popular vote for the House in 1996 and 1998, when Bill Clinton's job rating was high and the favorability ratings of the highly visible Newt Gingrich were very low. Clinton's job rating was high in 2000, too, but Republicans still won the popular vote 49 percent to 48 percent. In 2002, when George W. Bush's job rating was up around 70 percent, Republicans won 51 percent of the popular vote for the House. In 2004, when his job rating was around 50 percent, Republicans won 50 percent.

These numbers seem inconsistent with Hypothesis One. How to explain them? We have a highly polarized politics that divides us along cultural lines. Those cultural divisions tend to be more important to voters than their ratings of presidents' and parties' performance. The polarization is exacerbated by the fact that Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happen to have personal characteristics -- I don't have to spell them out, do I? -- that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathe.

The slight uptick in Republican percentages in 2002 and 2004 can be explained by higher Republican turnout. Looking ahead to next November, there is reason to believe that the Republican base is turned off -- by high spending, by immigration -- and may not turn out as heavily. But if so, how much difference will that make?

Polls are not good predictors of turnout -- only elections are. Last week, we had a special election in the 50th district of California, whose Republican congressman resigned in disgrace and went to prison. In 2004, the 50th district voted 55 percent for George W. Bush and 44 percent for John Kerry. Last week, the district voted 53 percent for Republicans (there were 14 candidates, the winner among whom goes on to a June 6 runoff) and 45 percent for Democrats. There were only two of them, and the leader, Francine Busby, got 44 percent of the vote -- the same percentage as Kerry. That may be 1 percent higher when the last absentees are counted.

These results are inconsistent with Hypothesis One. They're consistent with Hypothesis Two. Republican turnout was down more than Democratic turnout, but only very slightly. Of course, things may change by November. But it looks like Hypothesis Two is still in force, and if so, Democrats will have a hard time winning control of the House.

Copyright 2006 Creators Syndicate



TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 109th; 110th; 2006; barone; democrats; house; housegop; houseofreps; michaelbarone
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To: RWR8189

In 1994, people were switching from the RAT party in droves because Slick Willie showed them what the commie RATS were all about. Some people don't like some of the things President Bush is doing, but they aren't going to join the commie RATS because of it.


41 posted on 04/17/2006 5:27:10 AM PDT by advance_copy (Stand for life, or nothing at all)
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To: dakine
I see Joe/Jane six-pack voting their pocket-book, gas prices are out in front EVERY day...

Yeah... the intelligencia.

42 posted on 04/17/2006 5:28:57 AM PDT by johnny7 (“Nah, I ain’t Jewish, I just don’t dig on swine, that’s all.”)
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To: dakine
I see Joe/Jane six-pack voting their pocket-book, gas prices are out in front EVERY day....

Republicans should be shouting it from the roof tops that it is the DEMOCRATS who are standing in the way of increasing oil productions. If they don't like higher gas prices, thank a Democrat!!

43 posted on 04/17/2006 5:30:45 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: mariabush
the achievements of this administration, and there are a lot.

Agreed. The economy is doing great by standard measures: unemployment rate, inflation, etc. Democrats have obstructed on energy, social security reform, tort reform, medical savings accounts, etc. Again, by standard measures, this war is a success. I think we lost more soldiers on D day than since we invaded Iraq. And Hitler wasn’t even close to Hussein on nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons capabilities.

There is way too much negativism going on to suit me.

Agreed. We can always want more. And maybe we got it with the Alito appointment and (maybex2) immigration. It’s not all about the Presidency. We need more conservatives in all branches and levels of government. I think every Republican President has disappointed some conservatives. But we have to consider the alternative. Bush may not suit some conservative's idea of perfect, but we could have it a lot worse.
44 posted on 04/17/2006 5:32:29 AM PDT by ChessExpert (Islam - a dangerous cult)
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To: LibLieSlayer

I am very unhappy with the Republican performance running our government. However, this ain't 1994. In 1994 the Republicans offered a vision and a promise (subsequently unkept) to change the way things were done in that cesspool knows as Washington, D.C. Fast forward to 2006. Everyone is just as dissatisfied with the Republican majority as they were with the Democratic majority in 1994. Difference, the Dems offer nothing and stand for nothing except policies that have proven to be failures over the past 75 years

Since Dingy Harry became majority leader they have not come up with one idea or policy or answer to any problem plaguing our nation. Rather they have engaged in an unceasing round of negativity towards virtually every official and non-official in the Bush Whitehouse.

This country was not built upon negativity. While we have gone through periods of prevailing negative feelings, these have the exception not the rule. Leaders who usher in an era of change generally are optimistic in their vision. Even Nixon, who seemed like a pretty down person, offered hope of ending the Vietnam War and making the government work.

Our current crop of Dems to coin a phrase, are nothing more than "Nattering nabobs of negativity." (Who said that?)

In short, until the Dems really stand for something, they will be out of power. All of the focus groups and think pieces by Dem consultants is not going to change that.


45 posted on 04/17/2006 5:32:38 AM PDT by appeal2
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To: appeal2

"Nattering nabobs of negativity."

Spiro Agnew


46 posted on 04/17/2006 5:34:54 AM PDT by ChessExpert (Islam - a dangerous cult)
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To: Loyal Buckeye

It seems whether the RATS win, we lose, if the GOP wins, we lose slower.

If GWB and the GOP wants to curry favor with voters, they should start working for the average man, and stop working for Habib in India, Jorge in Mexico, and Mohammed in the UAE.


47 posted on 04/17/2006 5:35:57 AM PDT by chris1 (I)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
Gas is still relatively cheap! There are so many things that the average person could do to reduce their fuel consumption.

I never hear anyone complain about the price of milk. I see people still piling up the groceries.

I noticed tons of people over the weekend loading up their baskets in Wal Mart with 20.00 ir 30.00 dollar Easter baskets.
48 posted on 04/17/2006 5:36:35 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
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To: Coop

Are you his minion?


49 posted on 04/17/2006 5:36:41 AM PDT by dakine
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To: MNJohnnie

Don't base ANYTHING on polls. Polls today are as accurate as Ouija Boards. They reflect ONLY what the people commissioning them want them to reflect.


50 posted on 04/17/2006 5:37:30 AM PDT by PJ-Comix ((Join the DUmmie FUnnies PING List for the FUNNIEST Blog on the Web)
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To: Coop
I am a member of the RNC, but have not donated additional $$ in recent months. I have not decided who I like for President. It is early and hopefully a candidate will emerge that can beat Hildebeast. I like George Allen, but am not sure he has the gravitas. McCain would be a hold my nose and vote over Hildebeast. Frist would be OK, but not sure he could beat Hildebeast. I could support Rudy despite his liberal social views, due to his leadership and positions on national defense/crime.
51 posted on 04/17/2006 5:38:58 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: dakine
I'll take that as a "No."

Join in if you'd actually like to intelligently discuss numbers and the like, instead of reciting bitter talking points.

52 posted on 04/17/2006 5:39:32 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: LibLieSlayer; TNCMAXQ
Fundraising Prowess of Bush, Cheney (Mar 06)

Interesting article a few weeks prior to the first quarter numbers coming out.

53 posted on 04/17/2006 5:41:16 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: only1percent
The most important factor of 1994 wasn't short-term or strategic, it was the culmination of a 30-year shift from Democrat to Republican in the south and west, exacerbated by the 1991 redistrictings. Bill Clinton's popularity in 1992 staved it off for two years, but in 1994 the inevitable was realized: there were 20+ districts which had become fundamentally Republican in character which still had legacy Democrats, who gave way and retired or were defeated.

Good analysis. I was thinking along the same lines. In that 30 year time, many state legislatures and governorships went Republican, esp. those in the south, but also even in some Rust Belt states like PA. That gave the GOP the upper hand in redistricting. Couple that with the loss of population, i.e., congressional seats in the northern states and gains of population, cong. seats in the conservative trending south and you have what we see today.

There aren't that many swing seats left anymore. Most seats are either solidly DEM or solidly GOP. State legislatures designed them that way. And in those, the incumbent has the upper hand. The only real shifts seem to occur in the few swing districts where there is no incumbent running.

The axiom that "politics are local" usually holds sway. If people are happy enough with their Congressperson, they won't vote him/her out, no matter what they think of the President.

I think the GOP will hold the House.

54 posted on 04/17/2006 5:41:36 AM PDT by randita
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To: maica
who post on FR have been disgruntled with the Republican party for the past 5 years. They are Constitution or Libertarian or other party supporters. Learn to read their words as background noise.

Um is that like burying one's head in the sand so they can't see what is really going on? Should we also ignore the substantial polls quoted in the article (and those not quoted)?

By the way what has the GOP done with their majority in both houses and the President? Tax Reform? No. Social Security Reform? NO. Cut Spending? NO. Closed the Border? No. Outsourced Jobs? Yes. Iraq positive or negative? Undecided. Economy? Good for big business, bad for wage earners.

I think I would expect a little better report card come the end of the term and if it is not better, I would be worried about what the voters would do.

I predict less people voting straight tickets and more voting for individuals based on their individual stances. The two parties have become too similar. Immigration and its ties to jobs and our economy and taxes may well cast the deciding votes in 06 and 08 and the future of our country. What good are income tax cuts if they are taking them back with other higher costs and lower wages, resulting in a net loss to many? The people are not stupid, a little slow to catch on maybe but not stupid.

55 posted on 04/17/2006 5:43:35 AM PDT by rolling_stone
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To: mariabush; Conservativegreatgrandma
I see the same thing here in Georgia. People are still buying houses, even though interest rates have risen. Unemployment is very low, and Georgia's welfare rolls are significantly lower than 10 years ago.
I do hear many complaints about the price of gas. It is a ridiculous. If the price of gas goes up $1 per gallon. I drive about 12000 miles per year, my wife about 3000. We use about 600 gallons a year. That is an additional $600 per year or $50 per month. I spend more on coffee and gatorade (cycling).
56 posted on 04/17/2006 5:45:16 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: TNCMAXQ

Exactly,
Taxes would go up, since the tax cuts are not permanent. The RATS would spend more on useless social programs. Social Security would NOT be reformed.


57 posted on 04/17/2006 5:47:01 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: rolling_stone
Economy bad for wage earners? ROTFLMAO!!! [slapping thigh]

Partner, they suggest you change the wording a bit before reading from the talking points. Keep it in mind next time.

Now if you'll excuse this wage earner, I need to get in line for bread. :-D

On, and by the way, you can change "no" to "yes" after tax reform. This persecuted wage earner is keeping more of his money now, thank you very much.

58 posted on 04/17/2006 5:47:28 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: All
Setting aside the RNC rhetoric, some numbers in this thread:

RNC Continues Record Breaking Fundraising (Feb 06)

59 posted on 04/17/2006 5:48:47 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: rolling_stone
Um is that like burying one's head in the sand so they can't see what is really going on?

No, it is reading Freeper comments as an informed consumer of commentary.

Should we also ignore the substantial polls quoted in the article (and those not quoted)?

Of course.

60 posted on 04/17/2006 5:52:07 AM PDT by maica (You are being lied to. By elements in the media determined that Iraq must fail. - Ralph Peters)
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