Thanks for the post. At the moment, Rudy is leading the pack in the GOP primary in Georgia, to pick a state packed with so called "conservative" Pubbies at random. I think most GOP voters are fully informed as to who Rudy is. It is not like they think he is a social conservative, in your terms, and will desert him when they find he is not. Pubbie primary voters tend to be informed voters, who know what is shaking. Picking a president is a very special task, and responsibility, and different factors are in play, from the garden variety local race. One interesting aspect of one poll I saw, is that pro Bush Pubbies tend to favor Rudy, and anti Bush Pubbies (a growing cohert, and frankly I am rather down on him myself, but support Rudy so once again I don't fit the mold), tend to favor McCain. Isn't that interesting?
Dear Torie,
It's a long way 'til the primaries, you'll forgive me if I take the polls at this moment with a grain, or perhaps a block of salt. To me, polling right now is about name recognition. If Mr. Giuliani can't score big right now, and I mean REALLY big (e.g., he should be able to poll absolute majorities), then I'm not sure he'll have much strength when folks actually start paying attention.
"Picking a president is a very special task, and responsibility, and different factors are in play, from the garden variety local race."
I agree. And so do most social conservatives, especially the hardcore part of the population that is do-or-die pro-life. I've actually voted for pro-abortion Republicans at levels below the presidency. I voted for Gov. Ehrlich here in Maryland. Why? Because the governor of Maryland isn't remotely related to the one thing that must happen for the pro-life movement to advance - overturning Roe.
I'm a little more squeamish about pro-abort US Representatives, and probably wouldn't vote for a pro-abort candidate for the US Senate, in that these folks vote on the confirmations of US judges, especially US Supreme Court justices.
The presidency, however, is the one unique office that not only currently has the most to do with our next goal - overturning Roe, but is also the one office that can create a national tone or mood. It's that old bully pulpit thingy.
"One interesting aspect of one poll I saw, is that pro Bush Pubbies tend to favor Rudy, and anti Bush Pubbies (a growing cohert, and frankly I am rather down on him myself, but support Rudy so once again I don't fit the mold), tend to favor McCain."
That is interesting, and doesn't bode well for Mr. Giuliani, in that Mr. Bush has increasingly alienated the folks who actually go out and vote in Republican primaries. I still count myself as a Bush supporter. I think he's made plenty of mistakes, many of them grossly stupid, but on most issues, he's pursued policies, in the main, of which I approve. It's tough to ask for more than that, and I won't.
Nonetheless, I wouldn't vote for Mr. Giuliani under any circumstances that I can foresee. I don't know any pro-life Republicans who would vote for him. I wouldn't be happy voting for Mr. McCain, but I would vote for him than for any Dem (unless he goes off the reservation on abortion). Lots of folks I know won't vote for him, but I'm willing.
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