Posted on 04/14/2006 7:39:10 AM PDT by SmithL
SACRAMENTO - Steve Westly's relentless, multimillion-dollar barrage of television commercials pitching his campaign for governor appears to be paying political dividends.
A Field Poll released today shows the former eBay executive from Atherton now has an 11-point advantage over his June Democratic primary opponent, Phil Angelides.
Westly, the state controller, has had a dramatic, double-digit jump in support from potential voters across California over the past two months. He previously trailed Angelides, the state treasurer, by eight percentage points but now leads with 37 percent of the vote.
What's more: Westly, at great expense to Angelides, has siphoned a significant share of Democratic voters who were undecided about which candidate they would choose in the June 6 election. However, 34 percent still remain undecided.
Westly has gained 19 percentage points since the last Field Poll in February, while Angelides has remained stagnant at 26 percent.
"What it shows is that Democratic voters are responding to Steve Westly's positive message and upbeat style, and Phil Angelides' nonstop attack over the last week, week and a half, has not worked, and has backfired," said Garry South, senior adviser to the Westly campaign.
A campaign spokesman for Angelides wasn't surprised by the most recent polling trend.
"Westly's been outspending us 2-1 on television," Brian Brokaw said, noting that Westly is funding most of his own campaign, "but the California political landscape is littered with candidates . . . who tried to buy elections."
The widening gap developed at a time when most voters were learning about the politicians through 30-second television spots.
"It appears that Westly's ads are being much better received," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "That's the only conclusion I can make."
If that's the case, the Angelides team may end up modifying its media strategy.
Angelides, who advertised heavily in March with a string of positive, pro-education messages, at a total cost of about $4 million, has been off the air the past two weeks to save money; the Field Poll was conducted during his blackout last week, from April 3-10.
But Angelides, a millionaire former developer from Sacramento, nonetheless received media attention that week, for free.
After dipping behind Westly in a Public Policy Institute of California poll, Angelides began to draw more distinctions between himself and his opponent, at a rally and at a debate last week, to the point where Westly accused Angelides of negative campaigning.
Angelides' newfound tone may have played into the minds of voters, said Barbara O'Connor, a professor of communications and director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and the Media at Sacramento State.
"He can't get negative," O'Connor said. "I think he has to carve out a different image of himself."
Westly, a multimillionaire, has advertised nonstop since March, spending up to $7 million on commercials showing his support for education and the environment.
As of the most recent financial reporting period, Angelides had $14.5 million cash on hand, compared to Westly's $23 million.
While Westly has a fatter checkbook, Angelides has enormous support from labor unions and elected officials.
Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, said Angelides needs to accomplish three tasks to get back on top: Focus on his own, positive message on television; play up Westly's negatives; and work on securing high voter turnout on election day.
"It's one thing to score a certain percentage of support in a poll," Pitney said, "it's another to get those folks to show up on primary day, or to send in their mail ballots -- and that's where organizational support will prove crucial."
The Field Poll was based on a survey of 303 Democratic voters likely to participate in the June election, and has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.
Brokaw said Angelides wouldn't change his campaign strategy because of poll results. "He's going to be continuing to do what he's been doing, which is campaigning up an down the state."
South predicts Angelides will seriously consider campaigning on the negative. "I think the Angelides campaign is in serious trouble," South said, "and they have some very hard decisions to make starting today."
The poll concluded that slightly more than a third of likely voters are undecided about which candidate to choose, down from the February poll, before advertising began, that showed 54 percent hadn't made up their minds.
"It seems to me that in a race where the candidates are not very well known, that TV advertising counts for a lot, and this really points to the advantage of having the kind of money that Westly or Schwarzenegger has at their disposal," said political scientist Bruce Cain, director of the University of California Washington Center.
"This is really testimony to the power of television advertising, and having a personal fortune that you can use."
The poll also found that in a November general election matchup, Westly and Schwarzenegger would be tied at 43 percent. Angelides would draw 40 percent of voters to Schwarzenegger's 44 percent.
Well, Angeledelis promised higher taxes, so it doesn't shock me.
HEY YOU STUPIDASS CALIFORNIANS, VOTE FOR ME BECAUSE I PROMISE, ABSOLUTELY PROMISE, THAT I WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES. CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW YOU BUNCH OF MORONS?
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