Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says

Yahoo ^

[Lunatic Fringe]

Bloomberg material can't be posted, so I am using an indirect search link for the story.

[JasonC]

They say they are constructing a 50,000 centrifuge cascade. The number used and the time needed to get enough enriched uranium for a bomb are directly related in a well understood way. They have tested a research level cascade that has less then 200 centrifuges, which would take years. They have spoken in the past of building one with 3000, which would take less than one year. With a full industrial scale 50,000, the figure is 16 days. From the time they put feed stock into that many machines. The rest is pure math.

[JasonC]

They don't need anybody to give it to them. They talk the scare, and oil goes to $70, and they sell oil. They aren't negotiating. They are acting. They get all the money and the bomb too.

[chemicalman]

Hope it prematurely detonates on them.

[Tevin]

They say they are constructing a 50,000 centrifuge cascade.

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how long would that take?

[Sneakyuser]

Has anyone asked the most important question IMO?

Has Iran shown even the slightest hint that they are enriching uranium for a nuclear POWER plant, or just because they can (whatever other reason that may be)?

Has anyone asked them about this?

[P-Marlowe]

Call us when their missiles have a range of 7000 miles.

Here's a "missle" that usually has a range of about 14,000 miles.

I'm sure Iran has thousands of these.

[philetus]

Why don't we just let them have it and get this show on the road.

[Eastbound]

"We take out Iran and make it look like their fault."

It may have merit. But I think there are enough freedom-loving Iranians in Iran to change things for the better with a little help from their friends. As far as having a base in the area, I think we would be stupid to pull up stakes in Iraq when things settle down there.

For all the blood our warriors spilled on their behalf, we have earned the right to maintain a permanent quick-strike, anti-terrorist base on Iraqi soil. If we clear out completely without having that facility, I think our entire operation there will prove to have been in vain.

What better location in the M/E could there be for us to maintain a presense in the world-wide, long-term war against terrorists? IMO.

[Eastbound]

"Has anyone asked them about this?"

Not sure, Sneakyuser. But I think there have been statements from Iran about their intentions for peaceful use of nuclear power. In fact, I posted a little cartoon about it a couple of years ago, questioning their intent. My artistic skills aren't the best, but here it is again:

'We not build nukey bumb. See? Plans for generator only!'

[hildy123]

I agree and I would not and did not suggest we pull up stakes in Iraq. I believe that with this action we could pick additional sites to use as well. The student movements are accelerating but it could be to little to late. Their friends are little more than cheerleaders from a far with no nuts and no guts, unless you know something I don't.

[Eastbound]

"I believe that with this action we could pick additional sites to use as well."

For sure we could use them.

" The student movements are accelerating but it could be to little to late. Their friends are little more than cheerleaders from a far with no nuts and no guts, unless you know something I don't."

No, I know nothing about nothing, hildy. I do think that the Iranians who are pushing for a change there are pretty determined. And hopefully, pretty well organized at this point. Que sara, sara, right?

[JasonC]

The article is prompted by an AP report that the deputy chief of their nuclear program, Mohammad Saeedi, told Iranian state TV today that they are doing it now.

[ThirstyMan]

Excellent point!

Thinking of conventional means of delivery will not suffice with this enemy.

[Tevin]

Any indication of how long a process it is or how far along they are?

[zarf]

Unless we ramp up troops in the area I don't see us doing anything.

At this point, it looks like Iran is going to get their bomb.

Chavez is sporting wood right about now.

[zarf]

Call us when their missiles have a range of 7000 miles.

Problem is when Iran nukes us, we won't be able to trace it back to them.

[JasonC]

Their government is saying they are doing it now, our government is saying if they get that far the rest is a matter of days. Draw your own conclusions.

[JasonC]

Of course we aren't going to do anything. Think they'd be crowing like this if they feared anything we might do, in the slightest? They know we are bluffing. Notice, I did not say "think", because that implies a possibility of error. They are not in error. We are bluffing, and they are going to get the bomb.

[JasonC]

Honestly, it could take them a year from this point. That two week figure is how fast the last bit goes and they've said they will do that, and presumably already have. Remember, so far we've caught them doing more than they disclosed, never less, half a dozen times. They've disclosed that they plan to have at least 3000 machines running by this fall, previously. The time from that number to enough is around 9 months. Time needed falls if they are still ramping the number working. Calendar 2007 on present revealed timetables, sooner possible if they've gone farther than they've told the IAEA.

[beyond the sea]

U.S or Israel?

Israel

Date of strike?

May 2