[GSlob]

" Either they achieved enrichment a long time ago and are trying to hide from us how far along they really are, or they're bluffing and are nowhere close."
Then take the midpoint - i.e. more or less what he was saying - and you will not be that far from the truth. And then correct it so as to err on the side of caution - i.e. they are probably more advanced than he tells, but not radically.

[LibWhacker]

I'm all for erring on the side of caution and nuking they're butts right now.