The poll numbers would spike for a week or two if bin Laden was captured or killed. If, on the other hand, Bush were to announce real measures to close the borders and crack down on illegal immigration, then his poll numbers would skyrocket. (This, of course, is pleasant fiction, but it would make for a meaningful jump in the polls.)
Areed, if GWB came out and started giving speeches to get the House and Senate together with a guest worker plan, coupled with a Fence, Wall, and deportation of all aliens convicted of any crime, DWI, he would gain.
Simply calling for amensty is a disaster and makes him look like Fox's B%^&*&.
I am flumoxxed by the argument that it will delete Latino voters, if US limits illegal immigration. For the life of me, I can't imagine a person who has gone by the book being insulted by a country limiting illegal immigrants even if they are from their home country.