Posted on 04/11/2006 5:09:39 PM PDT by Jean S
Suddenly, thankfully, it does not seem that Hillary Clinton is on an automatic trajectory to become the next Democratic nominee for president. Two recent polls suggest problems that may loom in her path.
From New York state comes the latest John Zogby poll, forecasting a race for the Senate instead of a cakewalk. For the first time since GOP wannabe Jeanine Pirro dropped out of the race, polls indicate that New Yorkers hare having second thoughts about reelecting Hillary.
While the former first lady was leading her main opponent, John Spencer, 61-31 in Zogbys Jan. 13 poll, her lead is down to 54-33 in his survey of March 27. Zogby reflects increases in Hillarys negatives across the board among Democrats, Republicans and independents. He also shows a sharp drop in moderate and conservative support for Hillary, an indication that the shrill tone of her national attacks on the Bush administration and all things Republican is destroying the carefully cultivated bipartisan image she has sold to New York.
The drop in New York is especially interesting since Spencer has yet to wage any campaign. He has not advertised or been heavily covered by the left-leaning Empire State press corps. Hillary is dropping on her own.
For his part, Spencer is likely to get enough votes at the Republican state convention to stop his primary opponent, K.T. McFarland, from getting on the ballot. While she could petition her way on, that is a very hard task in New York, where one must get signatures in more than half of the counties. In some of these places, Republicans are hard to find.
And on the national level, a revealing insight comes from the Marist Poll of Feb. 22. The survey reported that Hillary finished a far-ahead first among her rivals for the Democratic nomination, getting 40 percent of the Democratic primary vote to former vice-presidential nominee John Edwardss 16 percent and Sen. John Kerrys 15 percent.
But, with Al Gore figured into the race, Hillarys vote share dropped to 33 percent, with the former vice president at 17 percent, Edwards at 16 percent and Kerry at 11 percent. A 33-17 lead over Gore sounds a lot more shaky than 40-16 over Edwards. (And remember, Gore has not even hinted at a candidacy. Once he does if he does his numbers are likely to increase rapidly.)
Gore turns Hillarys left flank and would be able to use his past and present opposition to the war and hefty environmental record to attract liberals repelled by Hillarys off-again, on-again flirtation with centrism.
Democratic animosity toward the Bush administration, approaching an all time high, means that the 2008 primaries are likely to be a kind of audition to see which candidate would do the best against the Republicans. Hillary is suspect because of the way she polarizes the voters. She doesnt polarize Democrats they all love her but even the most enthusiastic of her base voters grasps that she is a red flag to independents and Republicans.
As for Gore, he has already proved that he can get more votes than the Republican. He just needs to get them in the right states this time. Gores popular-vote success is likely to play well when Democrats contemplate the Kerry debacle, just as Nixons narrow defeat in 1960 looked pretty good after the pasting Johnson gave Goldwater in 1964, good enough to give Nixon another chance.
The electability issue is the soft-core version of Hillary negatives, which could undermine her in 2008.
Meanwhile, Spencer can also run on a soft-core negative. Rather than have to attack Hillary frontally, he can point to her looming presidential candidacy, there for all to see with each days national speech, and note that he is the only candidate running for senator from New York who wants to be senator from New York.
When Hillary ran in 2000, few believed she would run for president. It was not an issue. Her gullible supporters believed that she was moving to New York so that she could become a senator, but it did not enter their minds that she only wanted to be a senator in order to become a president. Now that the second shoe is dropping, New York voters are obviously reassessing their view of Hillarys commitment to their state. And to be asked to vote for her reelection when she obviously will move heaven and earth not to have to serve out her term, may be too much for New Yorkers to put up with.
If Spencer can get the funding his standing in the polls warrants, he could be part of a one-two punch (with Al Gore providing the knockout) to stop a second Clinton presidency.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.
Sorry, nope, you still are--I picture the Wicked Witch upon seeing Hillary's FACE.
Sounds like a sagging cankle problem as well......
Bury her face down in consecrated earth?
Ram a silver spike through her tiny heart?
Throw holy water in her face and scream "The power of Christ compells you." over and over?
This from the man who said Hillary could never win her Senate seat 6 years ago. LOL.
I'm not clear why Morris is making such a big deal out of this. If Hillary wins by one percent of the vote, she's still going to run for President. And she'll have plenty of money left over from her Senate campaign to do it with.
I've seen a bit of what Warner would have to face in a challenge. He made some bigtime mistakes in the past, and there will be plenty of blood in the water to bring sharks from both the left and the right. JMHO
LLS
I just saw a clip of Hilliary screeching to the illegals something really stupid like, "You are the face of American."
Blood in the water. Here they come.
Dick and friends must be reading FR.
> DM has not been right no matter how badly he wants to be right.
Dickie boy whored himself out to the clintons. He hates them, but without them, he's irrelevant. It's nice to see his influence fading away.
> Hitlary will win Dem Nomination, and only McCain or Giuliani, maybe Powell can stop her.
Yes she will. You forgot Mitt Romney.
> Yeah yeah yeah they are RINOs, but not even these RINOs can outspend W.
The 2008 election is not about abortion or guns. It's about flushing the clinton trash down the toilet for good. I don't think there are enough two-issue conservatives *nation wide* to mount a 3rd party candidacy. But if the anti-abort/pro-gun folks can't take off their blindfolds and vote for the Republican nominee, they can say hello to this country's worst nightmare--President Hillary Rodham clinton.
"How can one stop Hillary Clinton?"
The Hildabeast will be slain - figuratively speaking - by a warrior with a pure heart.
Does the GOP have such a one? Or is the best we can come up with are cheap compromisers and phonies?
Aside from that shrill voice, the woman does more flip flops than the french candidate from 2004.
Hillary can make any GOP Nominee no matter how conservative look moderate.
at least to 40-50% of the voting populous they remember Hillary Rodham, not Hillary Clinton
Sigh. Wish this were written by someone other than Morris.
As we used to say when we were kids, I've seen better legs on a pool table.
And the sky is blue, the check is in the mail ...
Like Medusa, let her look in a mirror. She will see her reflection and turn to stone, shattering to pieces on the ground. What an enticing thought.
:-D )))
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