One other thought. Roach is Mormon, and they are very organized, and most probably voted absentee, and mostly for Roach. I am going to go out on a limb with that thought, and "predict," cautiously, that Bilbray will be the man.
What kind of weather did we have today in San Diego? Clear I think..
I may have to agree with your "prediction".
Is this district entirely within San Diego County?