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LIVE THREAD - 50TH CD SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - 18 Vie for Vacant House Seat in Ca.
AP Yahoo ^ | 4/11/06 | Allison Hoffman - ap

Posted on 04/11/2006 12:16:46 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

SAN DIEGO - Eighteen candidates in a solidly GOP district on the Southern California coast competed in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat once held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.

Brian Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist who was the choice of the GOP establishment; Republican businessman Eric Roach, who spent $1.8 million of his own money; and Democrat Francine Busby were considered the front-runners.

Cunningham represented the House district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, the former Vietnam War fighter ace was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.

The winner will serve out the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term, and will almost certainly try to hold on to the seat come November.

Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-to-2 in the wealthy district.

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party competes in a June 6 contest, the same day as the primary for the midterm congressional elections.

An outright winner Tuesday or, more likely, the winner of the June contest takes a seat in Congress for the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term — and likely immediately begins campaigning to hold on to the seat come November.

With the GOP field crowded, Democrats hoped that Busby, who ran and lost to Cunningham in 2004, could score an upset, a prospect that her own campaign acknowledged was unlikely.

Voters faced an onslaught of negative campaign mailers and TV ads in the final hours before heading to the polls.

Bilbray, a surfer and one-time lifeguard, was attacked in a mailer from the California Republican Assembly, a grass-roots conservative group, that called Bilbray "a Democrat posing as a Republican."

The Bilbray campaign attacked Roach as a mystery man trying to buy an election. "His political campaign ads and mailers are everywhere. But until a few months ago, no one had ever heard of him," Bilbray's mailer said.

Former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian's campaign attempted to recover from an embarrassing misstep. Internet bloggers discovered that photos on his campaign Web site purportedly showing a tranquil Iraqi street scene had been taken in Istanbul, Turkey. The photos were removed.

With the GOP field busy attacking itself, national Republicans poured some $300,000 during the campaign's final week into TV ads criticizing Busby for accepting donations from lobbyists. A mailer from national Republicans claimed that the school board member and self-described soccer mom had voted to lay off teachers in 2003.

Busby retaliated by noting that Cunningham had given $2,000 of his campaign funds to national Republicans before he headed off to prison.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006; 50th; bilbray; busby; dukecunningham; ericroach; kaloogian
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To: newzjunkey
Mountjoy is a throw-away candidate. Both he and Feinstein are in their 70's and have little business running for 6 year terms! She'll probably get 65% of the vote even if she were to assume room temperature.

In her last election, the Nov. 2000 election, she got 56%.

* Dianne Feinstein           Dem   5,932,522   55.9 
  Tom Campbell               Rep   3,886,853   36.6 
  Diane B. Templin           AmI     134,598    1.2 
  Medea Susan Benjamin       Grn     326,828    3.1 
  Gail Katherine Lightfoot   Lib     187,718    1.8 
  Brian M. Rees              Nat      58,537    0.5 
  Jose Luis Camahort         Ref      96,552    0.9 

Boxer's a madwoman. We need a carefully selected candidate to face her. Sorry but Special K wouldn't stand a chance against her ruthless campaigning and mammoth war chest.

Yes, and hopefully we'll have someone more active than Bill Jones next time. Most of these 50th CD candidates seem to have worked harder for this special election than Jones did while running for Senate.

61 posted on 04/11/2006 8:51:49 PM PDT by heleny
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To: Paul8148

Good point, but this district is pretty Republican, 3-2 I believe. More people will come out to vote in principle, which should mean she gets a smaller percentage the second time around.


62 posted on 04/11/2006 8:53:47 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
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To: newzjunkey

Howard can be ruthless, Im sure. lol

He just needs a TahRayZaa to bankroll him..


63 posted on 04/11/2006 8:57:27 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: newzjunkey
Historical note: Busby got 36.5% (105,590) of the vote against Duke in 2004.

Are you sure? There are only 106,000 Dems registered in the district.

Democratic               106,926
Republican	         159,547
American Independent       7,792
Green                      2,425
Libertarian                2,280
Natural Law                  694
Peace and Freedom            555
Other                      1,840
Decline to State          77,804
Total Registered         359,863

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/ror/154_2006/congressional.pdf

64 posted on 04/11/2006 9:01:33 PM PDT by calcowgirl
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To: georgia2006
if this seat goes DEM, that is a real bad sign for the GOP in Nov.

If this seat goes Dem it has to do with the Conservatives splitting their votes 8 way to Sunday vrs just a pair Democrat candidates. There is a lesson in this to Conservatives and Libertarians.

Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.

100%erism may feel good emotionally but it only results in political irrelevancy.

65 posted on 04/11/2006 9:04:03 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (In the end it does not matter if you win. All men die. What matters is how you lived. No surrender)
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To: Paul8148
Are they counting the votes with an abacus?
66 posted on 04/11/2006 9:04:46 PM PDT by AntiGuv (The 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty is bad for America and bad for humanity - DUMP IT!)
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To: The Old Hoosier

Yes, it runs from some precincts in nortern San Diego city to Carlsbad, and points inland. It does not take in the northern fringe of San Diego County (the most GOP part of the County), and none of Orange County.


67 posted on 04/11/2006 9:05:12 PM PDT by Torie
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To: calcowgirl

The link to the 2004 election

http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000.htm

she got the 36.5% in that race, pulled in 105,590 votes, looks like 10 dems didn't vote for her. probably dead. no wait, that wouldn't stop them from voting. ;-)


68 posted on 04/11/2006 9:06:09 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: AntiGuv

The votes have to be trucked down to beautiful downtown San Diego, and then run in the machine. It will be another hour yet, or more. The only mystery though, is Bilbray versus Roach, which is hardly an earth shaking event. Busby won't get 50%. More than 50% of the votes have already been counted.


69 posted on 04/11/2006 9:07:38 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

what 50% have already been counted?


70 posted on 04/11/2006 9:09:06 PM PDT by Paul8148
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To: newzjunkey
Boxer's a madwoman. We need a carefully selected candidate to face her. Sorry but Special K wouldn't stand a chance against her ruthless campaigning and mammoth war chest.

Seeing "Boxer", "mammoth", and "chest" in the same sentence just made me a little queasy, there.

71 posted on 04/11/2006 9:09:10 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: calcowgirl

I am currently on Sen. Morrow's e-mail list though I live here in Georgia because a good friend of mine in Mission Viejo recommended his site to me. I haven't regretted it since because I agree with many of his views, especially his stance against Illegal Immigration.


72 posted on 04/11/2006 9:09:59 PM PDT by jragan2001
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To: Torie

"The GOP erosion appears alive and well"

Right. Amazing how the self styled experts cannot see the obvious problem of a Republican feild split 14 ways vrs 2 Dems. But that right. This analysis seem far more a case of personal wishful thinking about "GOP Erosion" then reality.


73 posted on 04/11/2006 9:10:03 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (In the end it does not matter if you win. All men die. What matters is how you lived. No surrender)
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To: NormsRevenge

Brian Bilbray was one of the nation's strongest voices on immigration. I'm shocked the "Republican establishment" supported him, but I sure hope he wins.


74 posted on 04/11/2006 9:10:41 PM PDT by dangus (Church: "The road to hell is paved with the skulls of bishops." Me: "US gets new HOV lane.")
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To: Paul8148

Yup. More than 50% of the voters vote absentee in special elections, in middle class Anglo districts. I vote absentee all the time. I get my ballot in the mail automatically in every election by mail, and mail it in. It is just so convenient.


75 posted on 04/11/2006 9:10:56 PM PDT by Torie
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To: NormsRevenge; newzjunkey

Thanks! I'm so used to seeing lousy voter turnout it didn't look right. LOL.


76 posted on 04/11/2006 9:12:52 PM PDT by calcowgirl
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To: Torie

I don't expect Busby to get 50%, but I am rather interested to see what she does end up with. The significance of 47% versus 37% is considerable.

Otherwise, I'm actually interested to see who wins the GOP nod.


77 posted on 04/11/2006 9:12:54 PM PDT by AntiGuv (The 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty is bad for America and bad for humanity - DUMP IT!)
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To: Torie

The count's taking place at the Registrar's, on the north end of Kearny Mesa, just off the 15. Downtown's just the sho-biz site.


78 posted on 04/11/2006 9:13:16 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: MNJohnnie

Whatever. Busby will probably get a higher percentage in the runoff. One would think with so many GOP candidates to choose from, that it would maximize the GOP vote. I am not saying it does, but the splinter theory as reducing the GOP vote doesn't appeal to me. What you need to do, is post your predictions in advance like I do, and then watch who is more accurate when the rubber meets the road. Just a suggestion. Shooting the messenger who solve whatever frustrations you have, or change anything, when it comes to elections results.


79 posted on 04/11/2006 9:14:02 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ArmstedFragg

I don't know where that is. Is that near the Golden Triangle or something?


80 posted on 04/11/2006 9:14:54 PM PDT by Torie
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