Posted on 04/10/2006 7:31:47 AM PDT by SmithL
The starting lineup in the war for partisan control of the Legislature, established by the qualifying round, appears to favor Democrats - at least in overall numbers.
"The Republicans had trouble finding candidates for races all the way from the state House to the governor's race," said state Democratic Chairman Bob Tuke. "We had candidates itching to run."
On the other hand, Chris Devaney, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the quality of GOP candidates is strong, leaving party officials confident they can hold the present 18-15 majority in the Senate. They also intend on making a run at gaining control of the House, where Democrats have a 53-46 majority.
"Our polling indicates a vast majority of Tennesseans do not trust Democrats on (Tennessee's) Capitol Hill," Devaney said.
He also acknowledged that pro-Republican trend "goes against a lot of stuff that's going on nationally."
Here are some of the numbers:
n Twelve representatives are abandoning their House seats - three Democrats and nine Republicans. In the Senate, four members are stepping down - all Republicans.
n In the House, 28 seats have no Republican candidate qualified and thus seem assured of going - or remaining - Democratic seats. In contrast, 21 seats have no Democratic candidate running.
n In the Senate, a reverse situation exists. Four of the 17 seats up for re-election this year have no Democratic candidate; two have no Republican candidate.
The combined total of a party's legislators is also important for other exercises in state capital power. The state's constitutional officers, the state treasurer, state comptroller and secretary of state, are elected at a joint meeting of the House and Senate, with 67 of the total 132 votes needed to elect an official.
The combined Democratic total of senators and representatives is currently 68, while Republicans have 64. Thus, a gain of two Republican seats would mean a 66-66 tie. A three-seat GOP gain would give the party, assuming that members united, an opportunity to elect a state treasurer and comptroller in January.
A shift in combined legislative partisan power also would mean a shift in county election commissions statewide. Under state law, the party with a combined legislative majority gets three seats on each county election commission as well as the state Election Commission. The minority party gets two seats.
The law is unclear on what would occur with a 66-66 tie. But with a three-seat gain, Republicans would suddenly get a 3-2 majority on the state Election Commission and all county election commissions.
In the Senate, Republicans are playing defense and Democrats offense.
Perhaps the most-watched Senate race statewide is for the seat now held by Sen. Mae Beavers, R-Mount Juliet. Four Democrats are running for the right to oppose her, including former Senate Speaker Pro Tempore Bob Rochelle, known for his past advocacy of a state income tax.
Democrats also think they have a good chance at two other Republican incumbents: Sen. Bill Ketron, R-Murfreesboro, who will face Vince Springer, a Spring Hill educator and son of the late state Sen. Pete Springer; and Sen. Don McLeary of Humboldt, who recently switched parties and will be opposed by Democrat Richard Lowe Finney, a Jackson lawyer.
Democrats also have a viable albeit long-shot candidate against Sen. Steve Southerland, R-Morristown, although the district is strongly Republican. Duran Williams is a former Republican who has been principal of Cocke County High School.
On the flip side, perhaps three Republican challenges to incumbent Democrats rate as long shots. Those are in seats now held by Sens. Kathryn Bowers, D-Memphis; Douglas Henry, D-Nashville; and Ophelia Ford, D-Memphis.
Bowers, who faces trial on bribery charges, is opposed by three Democrats in her primary.
Ford and Henry also have primary opponents. Henry is heavily favored, but Ford is in an unusual situation. Ford won her seat by 13 votes in a special election that remains under challenge. The loser in that special election, Republican Terry Roland, is assured of the Republican nomination in November.
In the House, several incumbents of both parties face credible challengers.
Notably not included on that list, for the first time in years, is House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh, who is thus assured of re-election. Whether he gets a new term as speaker depends on whether Democrats retain a House majority.
Incumbent Democrats facing perhaps the most serious challenges include Reps. Eddie Yokley of Greeneville; George Fraley of Winchester; Frank Buck of Dowelltown; John Hood of Murfreesboro; Kent Coleman of Murfreesboro; and Joe Fowlkes of Cornersville.
Republicans also have credible candidates in the seats vacated by House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, D-Clarksville, and Rep. Gene Davidson, D-Adams. And they have long-shot challengers that GOP officials say have some hope of unseating Rep. Harry Tindell, D-Knoxville, and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Randy Rinks of Savannah.
The most notable Democratic challenger in East Tennessee is Fred Phillips, a former Washington County sheriff who resigned earlier this year as state safety commissioner. He is favored to win the primary and then face Rep. Matthew Hill, R-Jonesboro, in a combative fall campaign.
Incumbent Republicans high on the Democratic target list include Reps. Eric Swafford of Pikeville; William Baird of Jacksboro; Donna Rowland of Murfreesboro; Judd Matheny of Tullahoma; Joey Hensley of Hohenwald; Curtis Johnson of Clarksville; Phillip Johnson of Peagram; and Chris Crider of Milan.
The Democrats' best chance at winning among the nine seats being vacated by retiring Republicans may be in the 31st District seat held by Bo Watson, of Hixson, who is seeking the seat being vacated by Sen. David Fowler, R-Signal Mountain. Democrat Glen Mosley, a Methodist minister, will face the winner of a multi-candidate Republican primary.
Tom Humphrey may be reached at 615-242-7782.
What is going on with the TN GOP? It seems to be putting all their eggs into the open US Senate seat.
This means nothing. The question is WHICH seats are uncontested.
It makes no difference whether you run a pubbie in a heavy-dem district. It's bad news if you leave marginal seats uncontested.
Someone is actually challenging Pharoah Phil? I wish Van Hilleary drops out of the Senate race and seeks a rematch with Pharoah Phil. His presence in the race gives Coker a chance to win the nomination. Ed Bryant is the best man to take on the Ford family.
I have to admit that decent coverage of our local legislative contests is VERY sparse and often extremely biased towards the 'Rats, to the point that I'm not entirely well-versed on which members are departing and I know very little about the challengers.
I do NOT expect us to lose control of the State Senate, but I am also highly unsure as to which of our members are actually vulnerable. We've got some members who won seats that had been Democrat going back to Reconstruction (which are trending GOP) in '02, but this was similar to what happened in 1992 when we captured those seats only to lose them in '96 (and our very brief majority).
The State House is also similarly tricky to figure out. Republicans have been receiving an outright majority of the vote for House seats for a decade but have never won it (the most amount of seats we won in the House was 49, and that was 38 years ago in 1968). As it stands, the 'Rats captured some GOP districts (actually designed to elect Republicans) because of individual scandals in East TN, and they may be hard-pressed to hold onto them (although it's not impossible, a Black Democrat who won a heavily GOP district was considered toast after his initial victory, but he managed to win a 2nd term and may win a 3rd this year). The GOP has to focus on winning rurally-gerrymandered seats to overcome their disadvantage.
The question remains will Bredesen prove any coattails (assuming we can't do what hasn't been done in 54 years and knock off an incumbent) ? He didn't when he ran in '02 (we gained seats). I still think the 'Rats are going to have to face up to the inevitability that the GOP will become (which it already is) the numerical majority in the legislature and no amount of fraud and disenfranchisement will stop this.
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