The winner needs a majority, so there will be a runoff in May. Odd that they didn't mention that.
Much depends on which candidate Alan Garcia gets behind.
The odd thing about this election is that Humala was running behind Lourdes Flores until the media began to blast him for crimes and corruption. For some reason, that made him more popular with the voters.
What's the situation in Ecuador ? I may be spending about three months there late this year.