Posted on 04/07/2006 1:53:46 PM PDT by xcamel
...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY... MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS TN AND KY...NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL INITIATE NEAR THE MS RIVER AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS KY AND TN WHERE NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NOSE OF THE APPROACHING JET. SFC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW IDEAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE FIRST ROUND OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A SECOND ROUND OF VERY INTENSE STORMS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD OVER NRN LA...SERN AR AND NW MS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO THE AREA. AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES NOW APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDS NWD INTO THE TORNADIC STORMS ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AS INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVE ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN TN...NRN AL AND POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS NWRN GA.
BY THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE HIGH RISK AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING EXIST OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER LA AND CNTRL MS. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY...ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
...ERN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS/ERN SEABOARD. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN CAROLINAS...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
..BROYLES.. 04/07/2006
'Tis the season.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1610958/posts
We've also been tracking 'em here.
This is one nasty looking afternoon and evening coming up- hope all in the paths stay alert and safe.
Afternoon update & outlook 700-2000Z
Just watching FOX news now...they're covering this pretty well for national news..
John Gibson has it on the Big Story.
Over here...major update.
The Superoutbreak was likely a 200 to 300 year event.
it's actually nowhere remotely close to the Superoutbreak.
I don't think it will nearly be as severe. But the geographical coverage is almost identical - this one is starting a bit further west. And the tracks are similar as well.
On the phone with son at Ft Campbell...he says there are nearby areas with SOFTBALL size hail- tornados everywhere- Nashville traffic is backed up for miles.
He saw video of a large house that was picked up and moved hundreds of feet and plopped down in tact. Other houses (brick and CBC) are totally leveled.
It's getting uglier by the moment...
So, we're over here now?
Glad your son is okay. It's just hard to believe how many tornadoes there are and how much damage they're going to end up with in TN today.
One report says they should expect to be without power for a week. (Not sure what area.) Kinda makes me want to stock up for emergencies in case that ever happens in my area.
My cousin in Goodletsville saw the tornado touch down about a mile from his house. Its my turn now. NE Mississippi, where I live, is getting pounded right now.
Wow...what a day, eh? Glad your cousin is ok..you stay safe, keep us updated
The worst cell turned east in Prentiss County and is now tracking east of me. Twenty minutes ago it looked as if it were going to hit right over me. There is a mean line just North of Oxford, Ms, that is heading this way.
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