Posted on 04/07/2006 7:43:55 AM PDT by John Geyer
WASHINGTON - President Bush's approval ratings hit a series of new lows in an AP-Ipsos poll that also shows Republicans surrendering their advantage on national security - grim election-year news for a party struggling to stay in power.
Democratic leaders predicted they will seize control of one or both chambers of Congress in November. Republicans said they feared the worst unless the political landscape quickly changes.
Just 36 percent of the public approves of Bush's job performance, his lowest-ever rating in AP-Ipsos polling. By contrast, the president's job approval rating was 47 percent among likely voters just before Election Day 2004 and a whopping 64 percent among registered voters in October 2002.
By comparison, Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had public approval in the mid 60s at this stage of their second terms in office, while Dwight Eisenhower was close to 60 percent, according to Gallup polls. Richard Nixon, who was increasingly tangled up in the Watergate scandal, was in the high 20s in early 1974.
As bad as Bush's numbers may be, Congress' are worse.
Just 30 percent of the public approves of the GOP-led Congress' job performance, and Republicans seem to be shouldering the blame.
"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one."
There is more at stake than the careers of GOP lawmakers. A Democratic-led Congress could bury the last vestiges of Bush's legislative agenda and subject the administration to high-profile investigations of the Iraq war, the CIA leak case, warrantless eavesdropping and other matters.
In the past two congressional elections, Republicans gained seats on the strength of Bush's popularity and a perception among voters that the GOP was stronger on national security than Democrats.
Those advantages are gone, according to a survey of 1,003 adults conducted this week for The Associated Press by Ipsos, an international polling firm.
- Only 40 percent of the public approves of Bush's performance on foreign policy and the war on terror, another low-water mark for his presidency. That's down 9 points from a year ago. Just before the 2002 election, 64 percent of registered voters backed Bush on terror and foreign policy.
- Just 35 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of Iraq, his lowest in AP-Ipsos polling.
"He's in over his head," said Diane Heller, 65, a Pleasant Valley, N.Y., real estate broker and independent voter.
By a 49-33 margin, the public favors Democrats over Republicans when asked which party should control Congress.
That 16-point Democratic advantage is the largest the party has enjoyed in AP-Ipsos polling.
On an issue the GOP has dominated for decades, Republicans are now locked in a tie with Democrats - 41 percent each - on the question of which party people trust to protect the country. Democrats made their biggest national security gains among young men, according to the AP-Ipsos poll, which had a 3 percentage point margin of error.
The public gives Democrats a slight edge on what party would best handle Iraq, a reversal from Election Day 2004.
"We're in an exceptionally challenging electoral environment," said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a former GOP strategist. "We start off on a battlefield today that is tilted in their direction, and that's when you have to use the advantages you have."
Those include the presidential "bully pulpit" and the "structural, tactical advantages" built into the system, Cole said.
One of those advantages is a political map that is gerrymandered to put House incumbents in relatively safe districts, meaning Democrats have relatively few opportunities to pick up the 15 seats they need to gain control.
In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up six seats.
"I think we will win the Congress," Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean said, breaking the unwritten rule against raising expectations.
"Everything is moving in our direction. If it keeps moving in our direction, it's very reasonable to say there will be a Democratic Senate and House," said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Strategists in both parties say it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Democrats to seize control of Congress.
First, the elections would need to be nationalized. Democrats hope to do that with a burgeoning ethics scandal focused on relationships between GOP lobbyists and lawmakers.
Secondly, the public would need to be in a throw-the-bums-out mood. It's unclear whether that is the case, but 69 percent of Americans believes the nation is headed in the wrong direction - the largest percentage during the Bush presidency and up 13 points from a year ago.
Third, staunch GOP voters would need to stay home. Nobody can predict whether that will happen, but a growing number of Republicans disagree with their leaders in Washington about immigration, federal spending and other issues.
Bush's approval rating is down 12 points among Republicans since a year ago. Six-in-10 Republicans said they disapproved of the GOP-led Congress.
"I'd just as soon they shut (Congress) down for a few years," said Robert Hirsch, 72, a Republican-leaning voter in Chicago. "All they do is keep passing laws and figuring out ways to spend our money."
I can see low approval numbers for Bush. But the article doesn't state the obvious reason: amnesty for illegals. Bush deserves the poll numbers he is getting and so does the GOP Senate for their rewards for law breakers.
I think, I'm sorry to say, that we are headed back to a Democrat controlled country. We will be preached to by the die hard Republicans, who want to stay in power, but to tell you the truth I can't tell them apart anymore.
It started a few days ago when some expressed concern, and the Die Hards started the same old, If you vote Independent or don't vote, you will be giving power to the Democrats. They are right, but Republicans should have thought of that over the past six or seven years, while they were selling out their base.
I know the RINOs and Die Hards don't like polls unless they are in their favor, but there is disenchantment in the Republican Party. They don't need a poll to understand, unless they are deaf and blind.
Republicans stopped listening, and that is a fact.
Is this anything like the exit polls of 2004? If so, ignore...
With the exception of the Supreme Court appointments, it doesn't matter who's in power in the congress. With a few exceptions there, they are corrupt, self serving buffoons. Take a look at these people. I wouldn't trust them to take care of my house while I was away let alone run the country. These are the jack asses making laws every day that control our lives and drain our finances while they all become wealthy and live like the ruling class. I'm sick of all of them and won't support any of them.
All their fancy words and explanations will not change the fact the Republican Party stopped listening, therefore I don't feel I owe them anything.
I thank them for the conservatives added to the Supreme Court, so they can keep my last vote.
The same old, same old has started on every post. If you don’t vote with the party you will be putting a Clinton into the Whitehouse. Seems to me they should have been thinking about that over the past six or seven years.
Ever notice how they could care less what we think until election time.
We are supposed to be too stupid to notice that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.