Most people who invested in the Nasdaq in 1999 or 2000 are still underwater. People who invested in GM in the early 70's did not break even until the mid 80's. There are always examples of buying an asset when it is overvalued.
Timing the markets is not something most investors should attempt to do. Buying and holding for the long term has always been the best advice. Of course, one needs to manage their portfolio accordingly as they get older to reduce the downside risk. For that kind of investment strategy, stocks and bonds are by far a better bet than gold.
I am not talking about timing the markets. I am talking about regularly evaluating which assets are expensive and which assets are inexpensive and investing accordingly for the long term. Stocks, bonds, and real estate are by most historical measures are all overvalued right now. Commodities, while on a tear now for a few years, are still fundamentally undervalued.
If you bought gold in 1980, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1990, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95 and 96 you are most likely just now breaking even or finally making a little money, after adjusting for inflation. That's a lot different than buying NASDAQ between 1999 and 2000.
I am talking about regularly evaluating which assets are expensive and which assets are inexpensive and investing accordingly for the long term.
And I'm saying that most investors don't look at individual stocks or sectors and then run valuation models to determine where there are undervalued assets. Most folks aren't Warren Buffet and, instead, buy funds and let their managers, who have access to much more information and resources, do that for them.
Stocks, bonds, and real estate are by most historical measures are all overvalued right now.
There are a lot of smart people who would disagree with you. Of course, if you didn't believe it you wouldn't be such a strong proponent for gold and other PM's. If money flows out of real estate, there will be corrections in specific regional markets. However, at the end of the year, the aggregate value of American real estate will have increased over the prior year. If all that money leaves real estate, will it go into the equities market? If so, what impact will that massive flow have on stock values. You're making an educated guess but you really don't know for sure. Kind of like predicting where interest rates are going.