"No, the Israelis will use the military option."
Regardless of who attacks them, any overt attack on Iranian soil will percipitate a regional war the size of which hasn't been seen since WWII. I really don't think either Israel (new leadership) or the US has the political capital to pre-emptively attack Iran at this point in time without completely decimating Iraq's security and political situation.
I don't know about your Iraq comment -- the Iraqis and the Iranians do not like each other at all.