I don't see it.
The media is playing the GOP fracture over immigration and spending much bigger than it is. Even conservative columnists like Novak need to sell themselves, and the elections, to keep interest high and stroke their own egos. The fact is things look very good for the GOP in 2006, regardless of the media sponsored polls designed to sell papers. The fact that the polls aren't helping sell papers should be an indication of their effectiveness.
The polls are the only real indicator of voter dissatisfaction because the actual election show strong support for the GOP. Polls are only as good as the questions asked. They are even less informative when the results are predesigned. Dubya's job approval says nothing about who people will vote for in a midterm election and generic polls about parties mean little when people love their own Congressman but hate everyone else's Congressman. Media polls don't reflect the American opinion of the junk media or the rat party in general. I think Americans have a much lower opinion of the old media today, and I'm not sure media polls have ever been successful in shaping voter opinion. The polls in 72 convinced Nixon, or his minions, to bug the DNC, yet Nixon won by a landslide. I already mentioned the Republican take over of the Senate in 86 even though Reagan's job approval dropped to 46% just before the election. Jumpin' Jehoshaphat the exit polls in 2000 and 2004 were wrong on election day.
Here are the facts. We can't lose the House because of Gerrymandering until 2012. The rats have more seats up for re-election in the Senate. The economy is great. Unemployment is low.
Republicans can point toward a record of tax cuts, judges, and the WOT for their base. Moderates will be shown education and medicare reform, and the WOT, but the rats have no issue to run on except "let's impeach the President."
Not only that, but the rats are fighting a losing battle. The country is getting more conservative with every liberal mom's abortion. They are the fracturing party. The union voters, and black voters want protection of marriage, protection of guns, or school choice. Teachers want homo adoption and protection from their students. The rats are a coalition of anti-Bushs. They can't hold that coalition in midterm election when Bush ain't on the ticket.
The GOP base will stay with the GOP because there is no place else to go and because it is the only sane thing to do. It makes absolutely no sense to punish Dubya by electing rats.
I doubt the 06 elections will be a referendum on Dubya...
but if it is,
the White House has refused to pass the buck to Congress for sending him bloated budgets, even though Congressmen, like Mike Pence, point their finger at Dubya for signing the budgets sent to him by Congress. And if Dubya is the issue in 06, gigantic federal spending, at a rate faster than Dubya's, didn't hurt Reagan's 2nd midterm in 86...in fact we took back the Senate that year.
I think of voting in terms of a father with 2 brothers to babysit my child. The rat brother smokes dope and jerks off in the sink, and the Republican brother spends irresponsibly, but he lowered the allowance I have to pay him. I will be entrusting one of these brothers with my child's future and I've seen the Republican brother in a fight with the Taliban and Saddam. The rat brother only fights with the Republican.
I might admit that Dubya and the GOP have been ineffective on some issues, but the rats are complete f*** ups! How could any conservative let that happen after 8 years of Clinton? AWB, don't ask don't tell, Ellian Gonzales, Waco, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, First Lady Hillary, Lincoln Bedroom sleepovers for cash, Chinese tech transfers for cash, Vince Foster, and Ron Brown. The GOP base may be grumbling now but they will be shown the effectiveness of a conservative SCOTUS in reversing liberalism in the coming months, Saddam will soon be executed, and the base will hold their nose and pull the GOP lever again. in 2006.
He will push for a bill because the problem needs to be addressed.
Bump!