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--------------- Memorandum

To: Ken Mehlman From: Jan van Lohuizen Date: March 3, 2006 Re: Bush -- Congressional Republicans

Per our conversation, we took another look at the way voters, Republicans specifically, link President Bush and Republicans in the House and the Senate. There are several points worth making:

1. President Bush continues to have the strong loyal support of Republican voters. Despite slippage in approval ratings among all voters, the President's job approval among Republicans continues to be very high. Most members will be elected with between 80% and 100% of their support coming from Republicans. I don't see that Republicans driving a wedge between themselves and the President is a good election strategy.

2. My read of the current environment is that our problem will be turnout. '06 could become an election like '82 or '84. In '82 Republicans showed up at relatively normal turnout rates, while Democrats, because they were angry, showed up at abnormally high turnout rates. In '94, Republican turnout was elevated, while Democratic turnout was depressed. We have every reason to believe '06 could become the inverse of '82. We don't see signs of a depressed Republican turnout yet, but we have every reason to believe Democrats will turn out in high numbers. Anything we do to depress turnout, by not running as a unified party for instance, could very well lead to serious consequences in November.

3. The President is seen universally as the face of the Republican Party. We are now brand W. Republicans. The following chart shows the extremely close correlation between the President's image and overall ratings of the party.

President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the '08 nomination. Attacking the President is counter productive for all Republicans, not just the candidates launching the attacks. If he drops, we all drop.

1 posted on 03/28/2006 7:52:55 PM PST by Karl Rand
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To: Karl Rand

Screw the Republicans. Vote Democratic in the U.S. House and tell the Democrats to impeach Bush.


2 posted on 03/28/2006 7:54:24 PM PST by Mini-14
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To: Karl Rand

Did Pat Toomey drive a wedge between himself and the President?


3 posted on 03/28/2006 7:56:19 PM PST by thoughtomator (Pacifism is objectively pro-terrorist; Amnesty for illegals is objectively anti-American)
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To: Karl Rand

They will all be scurrying to him come time to drum up $$$ for elections.


6 posted on 03/28/2006 7:57:50 PM PST by pissant
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To: Karl Rand
RNC Memo Warns GOPers Not To Distance Themselves From Bush
Gee, why would they have to do that?
9 posted on 03/28/2006 7:59:45 PM PST by lewislynn (Fairtax = lies, hope, wishful thinking, conjecture and lies. (no it's not a mistake)
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To: Karl Rand

When the GOP starts acting like Conservative party...


12 posted on 03/28/2006 8:01:18 PM PST by DTogo (I haven't left the GOP, the GOP left me.)
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To: Karl Rand

"W Brand Republicans" = Rockefeller Republicans


14 posted on 03/28/2006 8:03:04 PM PST by SUSSA
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To: Karl Rand

Why don't they warn Bush to stop distancing himself from the people who elected him?


15 posted on 03/28/2006 8:03:34 PM PST by ladyjane
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To: Karl Rand

Why don't they warn Bush to stop distancing himself from the people who elected him?


16 posted on 03/28/2006 8:03:37 PM PST by ladyjane
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To: Karl Rand
GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not.

Uh, yeah, sure. We are usually told this when Bush is trying to sell out conservative positions.

18 posted on 03/28/2006 8:04:45 PM PST by dirtboy (Tagline under contruction. Fines doubled.)
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To: Karl Rand

Oh not to worry Jan and Ken, the way I see this illegal immigration sellout shaping up, this child is about to distance (as in, a very long distance) himself from the RINO herd altogether.


23 posted on 03/28/2006 8:07:17 PM PST by Ursus arctos horribilis
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To: Karl Rand

The President should immediately stop driving a wedge between his supporters, and his STOOPID POSITIONS on issues such as port security, and illegal aliens.

Thank you.


26 posted on 03/28/2006 8:09:17 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: Karl Rand

this guy doesn't have a clue either...best thing pubbies can do is renouce old GeorgeW.


34 posted on 03/28/2006 8:12:55 PM PST by rolling_stone (Question Authority!)
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To: durasell; dirtboy

One seat away from controlling the US Supreme Court AND the Congress and The Presidency for the 1st time since 1932 and the Whiners would throw it all away because President Bush and the Congress don't do ONLY what they what when they want it. Throw away 70% good to get 100% bad just at the moment of Conservative victory that been 25 YEARS in the builiding. That is just too politically stupid to take seriously.


37 posted on 03/28/2006 8:13:22 PM PST by MNJohnnie (The Left has their own coalition, "The Coalition of the Whining". ---Beagle8U)
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To: Mini-14

You can scream words all you want, actions speak louder.


43 posted on 03/28/2006 8:14:24 PM PST by MNJohnnie (The Left has their own coalition, "The Coalition of the Whining". ---Beagle8U)
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To: Karl Rand; All
Jobs Americans Won’t Do?

"...In his second term, President Bush has become a master of the reverse-wedge issue — hot-button issues that divide his political base and get it to feast on itself with charges of sexism, xenophobia and racism. The first was Harriet Miers; then there was the Dubai ports deal; and now comes his guest-worker proposal, making for a trifecta of political self-immolation."

46 posted on 03/28/2006 8:15:19 PM PST by Conservative Firster
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To: All

Some "Freepers" here, those who keep harping about tossing Republicans out of office, remind me of that old Foster Brooks routine. He'd be drunk, stumbling in front of his wife with a gun aimed at his own head.

"Don't laugh!" he'd say. "You're next!"


47 posted on 03/28/2006 8:16:06 PM PST by zook
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To: Karl Rand

Did ya see the rioting in France??

That is what happens when liberals run the government


58 posted on 03/28/2006 8:19:14 PM PST by Mo1 ("Stupidity is also a gift from God, but it should not be abused." Pope John Paul II)
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To: Karl Rand

Note to RNC. It is you and the President who are doing the distancing and not conservatives.


108 posted on 03/28/2006 8:37:48 PM PST by conservativecorner
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To: Karl Rand

Too late, Bush and the RNC distanced themselves from GOP voters.


114 posted on 03/28/2006 8:39:36 PM PST by Excuse_My_Bellicosity ("Sharpei diem - Seize the wrinkled dog.")
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To: Karl Rand

President Bush needs the republicans in Congress more than they need him right now. If he loses the Congress, he will be powerless in the remaining years in office. His only chance to accomplish anything is to support republicans whether or not they support his ill advised policies, particularly his spending and his immigration policies.


118 posted on 03/28/2006 8:41:16 PM PST by brydic1
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