Posted on 03/28/2006 7:30:01 PM PST by Buddy B
Republicans risk Hispanic support in border debate
28 March, 2006
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON - The debate on immigration poses deep political risks for a divided Republican Party that could see its recent gains among Hispanics wiped out if Congress approves a bill that gets tough with illegal workers.
The Republican split on immigration, on full display as senators took up the issue on Monday amid emotional street protests, could sabotage the party‘s long-range effort to court the country‘s fastest growing ethnic group, Hispanic activists and analysts said.
"If they go ahead and crack down, Republicans are dead in the Latino community for a generation," said Antonio Gonzalez, a Los Angeles-based community organizer who heads the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project.
Party strategists have vivid memories of California‘s 1994 passage of Proposition 187, which cut off public services for illegal immigrants. The measure, backed by then-Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, was thrown out by the courts but the resulting furor helped turn the state solidly Democratic.
"Pete Wilson set back the Republican Party in California," said Daniel Griswold, a trade and immigration expert at the conservative Cato Institute think tank.
The intense debate on immigration pits conservatives who favor a tough approach to the country‘s 12 million illegal immigrants against Republican business interests that rely on immigrant labor.
President George W. Bush President George W. Bush, mindful of the growing clout of Hispanic voters, has pushed hard for a guest worker program with high Hispanic appeal that would allow immigrants to stay in the country while applying for permanent residency.
The House of Representatives approved a bill last year that does not include Bush‘s guest worker program and tightened a variety of restrictions on illegal immigrants. A Senate committee included a guest worker provision in a measure sent to the full chamber on Monday.
The philosophical clash follows years of determined Republican courtship of Hispanics, the nation‘s largest minority with a population of more than 40 million. That population is projected to more than double by 2050.
Unlike blacks, the most reliable of Democratic voters, Hispanic votes have been up for grabs and have become crucial swing blocs in key states like Florida and in emerging battlegrounds like Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona in the Southwest.
Bush, a former Texas governor who speaks Spanish, increased his share of the Hispanic vote to more than 40 percent in 2004, up from 35 percent in 2000. Republican Bob Dole won just 21 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 1996 presidential race.
But that trend is endangered by the sight of Republicans leading the charge for tougher immigration policies, said Perry Vasquez, Colorado state chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.
"I‘m fearful of the impact this will have," Vasquez said. "The Hispanic community is going to be deciding more elections going forward, and Republicans are missing a real opportunity to bring them in."
Marta Guevara, former Washington state chairwoman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, said the debate already was having an effect.
"It‘s already started to hurt Republicans," Guevara said. "I‘ve worked so hard for so many years for the Republican Party, but I‘m worried the party isn‘t concerned about the principles I‘ve been talking about."
The risk of alienating Hispanics is much greater than the risk of turning off conservatives, Griswold said. He noted Republicans who supported guest worker programs like Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe in Arizona and Chris Cannon in Utah have survived primary challenges from anti-immigration opponents.
"The Republican base is not going to abandon the party over immigration, but Republicans are running a very real risk of alienating millions of Hispanic voters," he said.
Marisol Jimenez McGee, director of advocacy for El Pueblo, a Hispanic group in Raleigh, North Carolina, said the debate had been devastating for the Hispanic community. She said they would remember how members of Congress voted.
"Latinos vote on issues, they don‘t vote on parties. There will be lots of attention paid to where people stood on this issue. The memory of the community is long," she said.
Seeing as how making major decisions based on polling data is more a Dem thing, I don't see why we would care.
And Jeb Bush will want the Hispanic vote when he runs.
His wife is Hispanic but then she was caught trying to smuggle in tens of thousands of dollars worth of designer clothes from Paris.
I wonder if that will hurt his chances. nah
In my experience with American hispanics, the GOP risks alienating them if They don't do more to secure the border.
If they pass a gues worker shamnesty enough conservatives will bolt the party it will not matter.
Muck the Fexicans.
They had better be concerned about the CITIZENS that actually vote. The illegals they are falling over themselves to appease can't vote them out of office, but we can.
What Hispanic supporters?
well, somebody is reading two sets of polls that are completely at odds then. I do not understand it. I do not understand why Hispanic americans - naturalized, or first generation, want to see amnesty and want to see guest workers entering the system.
Did it ever occur that illegal aliens don't vote?
Another article of few facts and many canards.
The truth of the matter:
- Hispanic citizens are the least happy with illegal immigration. They are not happy about regularly being mistaken for illegals or lumped in with them in other ways.
- At least half of the Republican base *will* leave the GOP over immigration, in numbers that will dwarf the illegal-lover vote. 20 years ago it would not have. But the scope of the problem has taken on dimensions it never had in the past in the numbers, violence, and intent of the newcomers, and there is the strong nexus with our other unwanted-immigrant problem (Islam). Illegal Mexicans here without consequence also means illegal jihadis here without consequence.
The GOP cares more about itself than about the USA.
Jeb's chances to win the Presidency died with Terri Schiavo.
California is Democrat country anyway, so no loss there.
As for the other states, its better to get tough on Illegal Immigration now rather than later when it will only get more difficult and with more at stake.
We all know how Bills wife turned out. (I'm walking lightly LOL)
I don't know where he got this mistaken opinion, but the Conservative base is abandoning the party in droves. Watch the next election for proof. These dummies had better not take the base for granted, and they are romancing a group who will vote Democrat no matter what they do. These Illegals are only interested in something for nothing, and the Democrats are masters at giving away the free lunch.
These dumb Republicans are giving away the store to appease big business who wants the cheap labor, and the Illegals because they think they're buying them as future voters. In reality, they're selling out their country and are going to lose. It's time for a Conservative Party!
Wrong ACE...the base is already beginning to boil over....and evaporate
imo
"Republicans risk Hispanic support in border debate"
Yea....The people who don't support us may continue to not support us unless we pander to them (wrecking the country in the process).
Certainly a tough choice for me...
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