.. and Jonathan mentions that Bibi will likely leave Knesset and retire from public life.
Yes. This is a good call for Medved to take today - some news from the ground!
...and with Bibi gone, Silvan Shalom runs Likud. He voted for disengagement and would likely bring Likud into coalition with Kadima.
Don't assume a center-left coalition. Kadima-Yisrael Beitenu-Gil-Likud-UTJ is a possibility, especially with Gil taking from 7-8 seats.