Schwarzenegger Campaign Hires Former Bush Media Consultants

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign has hired two media consultants who helped President Bush win a second term in 2004.

Alex Castellanos, a prominent Republican ad-maker in Arlington, Va., heads National Media. Fred Davis III, of Los Angeles, heads Strategic Perception.

Both were part of the team that created the Bush campaign commercials portraying Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, as a waffling, Washington insider.

The two are the latest in a string of former Bush aides hired by Schwarzenegger. His lead strategist is Matthew Dowd, who ran most aspects of Bush's re-election campaign. Schwarzenegger's campaign manager is Steve Schmidt, who worked on Bush's re-election campaign before joining the White House as an aide to Vice President Dick Cheney.

Public opinion polls show the Republican governor is likely to face a tight re-election race. His popularity has slid over the past year, especially among the moderate Democrats and independent voters he needs to win a second term.

Last year, voters rejected all four of the initiatives Schwarzenegger promoted for the November special election. So far this year, the governor has failed to persuade the Legislature to go along with an ambitious public works spending plan, his main legislative proposal for the year.

Here's what they've come up with

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign is today announcing its first TV ad of his re-election drive. This was first revealed here five days ago.

Arnold chief strategist Matthew Dowd is holding a 1 PM media conference call.

Details and updates to follow.

UPDATE: Here is the Arnold TV spot, available online now at his web site.

Intriguingly, most of it is footage of cosmopolitan liberal Democratic San Francisco and some of it - the lunch room shots and the closing shot - looks very much like footage from Arnold's 2003 recall campaign. (I have all his 2003 campaign ads on a reel.) And is that anywhere in California in the opening?

Here is the script:

“Tomorrow” is a 30-second TV ad featuring a narrator talking about the good news in California. The governor does not speak to the camera, but is pictured at the end.

Voice Over:

“Tomorrow is going to be a little better than today for Californians …

Because we’ve pulled our state back from the brink of bankruptcy.
We’ve dramatically reduced the state’s deficit
Cut the unfair car tax …
Reformed the workers’ comp system …
And created 500,000 new jobs.”

“Governor Schwarzenegger’s leadership is making California work again.”

UPDATE: Dowd, who served as chief strategist of George W. Bush's 2004 campaign and pollster for his 2000 campaign, describes it as "a simple ad" that will "track his (Arnold's) travels" around the state. Its purpose? To highlight the economy and its improvements. Why now? "The campaign is a narrative." It will point to "improvements and achievements" of the governor's.

BUT AS REVEALED HERE LATE LAST WEEK, the advertising buy - which the campaign confirmed today is in the Sacramento, Bakersfield, San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco markets also reported here - is quite small. In fact, for example, as of a couple days ago, it was to air only a few times on San Diego and Sacramento stations. One well-informed Republican source places the size of the ad buy at about $20,000, although it may be somewhat higher than that. Other sources were in the same ballpark, or lower.

I asked Dowd about this, posing the specific question of whether this is a demonstration buy or an attempt to move real numbers in the governor's direction. Here is his answer: "All the early buys are done with no expectation to move numbers. The dynamic of the campaign won't adjust until there is a choice between the governor and the Democrat. This is a way to communicate."

"Some buys will be small. Some buys will be big. Some buys will start small and end up big. Some buys will start big and end up small. The fundamentals of the campaign won't adjust until after the primary."

There you have it.

I didn't ask about why Arnold's TV ad features somewhat romantic shots of San Francisco that look appropriate for a Bank of America commercial or a San Francisco mayoral campaign. Or why the visuals have nothing to do with what the announcer is saying about jobs and so forth. Or why they would be running an ad clearly featuring footage of San Francisco in parts of the state that despise San Francisco.

If Arnold is going to win, it will be in Inland California and Southern Calfornia outside L.A., places where shots of the Bay Bridge (reconstruction held up two years after the governor questioned the bidding), cable cars, the Financial District, and the shimmering nighttime skyline of The City By The Bay reflected on the bay do not "resonate."

Bush could be mopping up the dems right now if his team were on the offensive and had a clue about mobilizing his base.

Elections happen in November and it makes no sense to sprint in March for the finish line. In 2000 Dubya won an election that he propably shouldn't have given the economy. In 2002 he added seats in the House and Senate...a feat not done by President in his first midterm election since 1934. In 2004 with the highest turnout since 1968, President Bush is re-elected with the largest number of votes of any Presidential candidate in U.S. history. Republicans win eight of the nine most competitive races and add 4 Republican seats to the Senate for a total of 55 and a 10 vote advantage over the rats. In the first loss by a Senate leader of either party since 1952, Republican John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. David Vitter became the first Republican senator from Louisiana since the 1880s. Republicans add 22 seats in the House.

As I said, for you this is failure. You prefer to believe a bunch of media paid for polls rather than indisputable facts. I can not change your mind because your opinion is not rational. It is just your feelings.

I think a lot of conservatives will be sitting out the 2008 election at this pace.

You may be sitting out the 08 election because of your anger with Dubya, but Dubya will not be running in 08.

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