Posted on 03/25/2006 12:43:21 PM PST by NormsRevenge
Despite a commanding financial advantage, state Controller Steve Westly could have trouble overcoming the union muscle that will direct voters toward his rival, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, in the Democratic primary for governor.
The failure of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's public works bond to reach the June ballot means there will be little to attract the moderate voters Westly needs to counteract the died-in-the-wool Democrats that unions are expected to drive toward Angelides.
"The challenge for Steve Westly is going to be getting people who are not so tightly affiliated with the Democratic Party to show up and vote," said Bruce Cain, director of the University of California Washington Center. "If it is a low-turnout election and if it depends on the party activists and the organizationally driven vote, that's going to favor Phil over Steve."
Westly's advisers say he can get around this problem with his bulging bank account.
Campaign finance statements released last week showed Westly, a millionaire who is financing his campaign largely with money he made as an executive at eBay, has $23 million in the bank. Angelides, a developer who has spent years raising money in preparation for the race, has $14.6 million.
The imbalance means Westly will have more to spend on television ads, which is still the most effective way of communicating with voters in a state as large as California.
Westly's advisers dispute the notion that the primary will be dominated by liberals and therefore will be more hospitable to Angelides.
"Democratic voters in California are liberal on social issues and moderate on fiscal issues," said Westly's campaign manager, Jude Barry. "That fits Westly's background and experience extremely well."
But analysts say Westly will be at a disadvantage without a significant showing by those who do not ordinarily vote in Democratic primaries.
Angelides' organizational support is formidable. He has the endorsement of some of the state's leading Democrats, including U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer.
He also has the backing of the California Labor Federation and the California Teachers Association, both of which were crucial to labor's victory over Schwarzenegger's slate of initiatives during last year's special election.
Unions deploy thousands of volunteers to knock on doors, make phone calls and lobby their members to vote for the candidates and issues they endorse. They also pay for slate mailers telling people how to vote.
Labor's power on a ballot can be diminished by issues such as immigration and abortion, which draw occasional and more conservative voters who are less likely to be swayed by union campaigning.
But the June 6 election promises little in the way of controversy. Just two measures made it onto the ballot - Rob Reiner's universal preschool initiative and a library bond. Analysts say that might result in a low-turnout election with a high concentration of union-influenced voters.
"Core Democratic constituencies will show up, and the heart and soul of the core Democratic constituencies in California is labor," said Democratic consultant Chris Lehane, who is not supporting either candidate in the primary.
Still, the race is far from settled. As Election Day draws near, the pool of undecided voters is growing rather than shrinking. A Field Poll taken in late February found that 54 percent of likely Democratic voters had not yet made up their minds, up from 37 percent last October.
That poll had Angelides leading Westly by 26 percent to 18 percent.
The high percentage of undecided voters means neither candidate is well-defined, and that leaves opportunities for both sides.
Westly's advisers are trying to position their candidate as a political outsider, although he is an elected official with nearly two decades of activism in the Democratic Party.
While that argument may be compelling in a general election, where candidates who occupy the middle of the political spectrum typically have an advantage, it might be less effective in a primary dominated by highly partisan Democrats who are angry with Schwarzenegger.
Westly's bid is further complicated by his political biography, which includes the period in 2004 when he and many other Democrats cooperated with Schwarzenegger to pass $15 billion in deficit-financing bonds. Angelides never cooperated with Schwarzenegger, something he highlights, while insinuating that Westly lacks conviction.
"Winning a campaign means having beliefs, things that voters stand for, so people are compelled to come out and vote for you on Election Day," said Cathy Calfo, Angelides' campaign manager.
With two candidates who are virtual unknowns, analysts say the election may hinge more on how effectively they attack one another than on how well they sell themselves.
A downside of negative campaigning is the discouraging effect it can have on potential voters. The Democrats who would turn out are likely to be committed party members more inclined to support Angelides.
"There are all these predictions about the race going negative," said Phil Giarrizzo, a
The Sierra Club co-endorsed both Westly and Angelides yesterday. They stiffed aRnold even tho' he has signed more enviro-friendly green legislation and has appointed more greens and enviros to positions than likely anyone before.
$22,300 Jesse Jackson President, Jackson Enterprises.
I think this must be Jess Jackson, of "Jess Jackson Enterprises" of Santa Rosa (the filing says Windsor, CA)
It is absolutely meaningless who wins the election in California. Left Republican or a Left Rat... The same goes for Masshole.
CO-ENDORSED?? What a bunch of wusses!
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