Hi Stu.
Your post is very logical on the first read. After some thought and re-reading, I have a question for you:
Who are the natural longs for the stock index futures?
We both know just how successful these contracts have been, yet I can't come up with an answer.
By the way, your service looks very interesting. I may give it a try sometime soon. I'm just too busy right now.
bank
It turns out that the major index futures mkts do have large crowds of naturals, on both sides. The reason why it's perhaps harder to see who is in which camp is because the population of each camp is constantly in flux.
Natural longs? They're fairly easy to locate. Any NYSE specialist or NASDAQ dealer who is short in his book, which possibility, of course, changes over time. Numerous hedge funds, at times, depending on their other positions. Arbitrageurs, when the futures trade at discount to cash. Anyone who prefers to lever up and use futures as a replacement for shares, which is fairly commonplace these days courtesy of the liquidity of the major index futures.
Make sense?
Thanks for having a look at the site. We intend to become the encyclopedia of American futures markets' historical data sometime in the next 90 days. Not far away from it right now, but there are several more features I want to add. And European futures, too -- when I can obtain good historical OHLC data, which is remarkably difficult to do. You cannot believe the EUREX people's attitude. Simply bizarre (shrug).
Good trading to you!