Condos doubled in price in about one month last spring because of speculation. There were virtually *no* listings this time last year, so a %900 rise isn't hard to fathom.
We were trying to buy a condo last year, and the routine was to smooth talk the realtors so they would call you with a new listing before it hit the multi-list. Otherwise you had no chance.
There are more condos listed now than comfortable because they went nuts last year. But there are fewer houses in our neighborhood for sale than two years ago.
Considering the fact that in the east and west valleys a wall of new houses are being built along a front of perhaps 5-10 miles wide, progressing a mile or more a year, who cares if sales dropped 24%. We're still adding fantastic numbers of new houses every year. As sales slows, they'll build fewer houses. But the important part is they're still building. We aren't overbuilt, and because we're still growing there's virtually no chance we will be.
All this doom-and-gloom crap is just that.
Growth can stop for several reasons out there. Where does your water come from? What other areas look or will look more attractive than your endless suburbs? How many investors have bought there versus stable owners? I haven't driven around there for a while, but I've flown over and it's butt ugly from the air. I think you suffer from a form of investor's syndrome: "it's different here". In the 1990's it was "different this time". Now some real estate investors look at their own area and make overly optimistic projections mainly because they aren't looking at more desirable areas and are overlooking their area's negatives. On the plus side I think parts of CA and CO look worse, so maybe you'll pick up a few people from those places.