Posted on 03/21/2006 3:45:43 PM PST by Aetius
Montana Senate: Burns Burnt?
March 21, 2006--Senator Conrad Burns is now lagging behind both potential Democratic opponents in the race for his Senate seat.
In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, Burns trails State Senate President Jon Tester 46% to 43%. In our last poll he was neck and neck with Tester. Burns trails State Auditor John Morrison 48% to 43%.
In the rolling average of our last three polls, Tester leads Burns 46% to 45% and Morrison leads Burns 47% to 44%.
Rumors abound that Senator Conrad will bow out and be replaced by either Congressman Denny Rehberg (thought to be interested in running should Burns step aside) or former Governor Mark Racicot (thought to be reluctant, but strongly preferred by many).
Each waiting-in-the-wing Republican leads handily when voters consider potential match-ups against both Tester and Morrison. Racicot leads Tester 57% to 34% and leads Morrison 56% to 36%. Rehberg leads Tester 56% to 37% and holds a 12-point lead over Morrison, 53% to 41%.
If Burns bows out, the GOP will probably hold on to this seat. But if he insists on playing out his hand, it may well be snagged by the Democrats.
The Burns campaign has been traumatized by talk of the candidate's alleged ties to indicted mega-lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Only 48% of likely voters now view Burns favorably, and 50% view him unfavorably. In January, 55% viewed him favorably.
Tester is viewed favorably by 48%, Morrison by 54%.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of Montana voters believe most politicians would change their vote on an important issue to get a large campaign contribution?
Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe it takes at least $50,000 to influence a Senator or Governor. Thirty percent (30%) believe gifts in the $1,000 to $10,000 range are enough to turn the head of an elected official. Thirty-two percent (32%) are not sure.
Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeTM Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Rehberg might have a better chance here. But of course, Burns has always been a survivor.
Sounds like Rove needs to make a call. ;o)
Mark Racicot came across very well supporting the President in 2000.
If these type of questions were asked in the same poll as the candidates assessment I'm surprised Conrad got over 10%.
Can you say Push Poll?
..and for just a buck more, you can up-grade to the Platinum level
Biggie size it for only $.49 ... what a country we live in.
Burns needs to get out...NOW!
Rehberg is a real conservative. Racicot is milquetoast.
Racicot is definitely not a conservative. He had his own David Souter moment as governor when he appointed who has turned out to be the worst, most leftwing member of the Montana Sup Court (can't remember his name right now), and as RNC head he needlessly insulted social conservatives.
So yes, I'd definitely prefer Rehberg.
But if it were Racicot vs either Dem, then I'd favor Racicot, because he'd at least vote for good Sup Court nominees, whereas both Tester and Morrison said they would have voted against Alito.
Ideally, Burns would get out, and then Rehberg would step in and hold the seat. Then maybe Racicot could do in 2008 what so many wanted him to do in 2002 -- take on Baucus.
Exactly. Someone needs to play up with Burns the desirablity of going out as a winner, and not risk losing an important seat over his ego.
IMHO, when state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan threatened to challenge Burns in the GOP primary, he was actually trying to goad Denny Rehberg into running.
Then Keenan would go for Rehberg's House seat.
I hope Rehberg does run.
The only other Republican to win a Senate seat in Montana is linked below.
http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=E000037
Then it is incumbent upon party leaders including Frist and the head of the RSCC, perhaps even the president, to talk him out of running and causing us to lose this seat. Crimeny, the man is as old as dirt anyway. Time to go retire and enjoy some Montana fly fishing.
I hope the Justice Dept indicts Burns soon. Then he'll be forced to quite re-election.
While you are hibernating...
Why don't we let him stay in until a month or two before the election, and if he's still behind, we just have him quit then and stick Mark R. in to replace him.
Hey, it worked for the Democrats. And it's even the same reason, appearance of scandal. It would be fun to see them in court arguing exactly OPPOSITE what they argued in 2002....
That's why they won't put forward any "new" ideas.
Republicans could pick up seats in the Senate.........
and I hope they do.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.